Gildan Shorts Retreat Sharply Before Thursday's Print

GIL reports Q3 results on October 30 with short sellers unwinding positions at an unusually rapid clip, even as the stock drifts lower into the release.

The most striking pre-earnings shift is in short interest. Borrowing fell 18% over the past week to 3.1% of the free float, a move 1.8 standard deviations below Gildan's typical weekly change over the past year. That withdrawal is not driven by a squeeze: availability runs at 488%, meaning roughly five shares remain available to borrow for every one already lent out, and borrowing costs are low at 0.70%. Short sellers are choosing to exit, not being forced out. The ORTEX short score has drifted down from around 41 to 38 over the past two weeks, consistent with the position reduction rather than any fresh wave of bearish conviction.

Price action tells a slightly different story. GIL closed at CAD 56.52, down 1.9% on the week and 2.5% over the past month. That relative performance is actually better than the peer group: the closest correlated names, including DECK and SHOO, fell 5.4% and 4.6% respectively over the same five sessions, and CRI lost 3.9%. GIL's 1.9% weekly decline came in well above the median peer decline of roughly 3.3%, a modest relative resilience that contrasts with the stock's year-to-date struggle.

The valuation picture adds context for holders. Gildan trades at a trailing PE of 7.8 and EV/EBITDA of 7.3, both of which have compressed slightly over the past 30 days. The earnings yield factor scores in the 76th percentile relative to the broader universe, pointing to a stock that looks cheap on backward-looking earnings. Forward earnings revisions are a brighter signal still: the 12-month forward EPS growth rank sits at the 90th percentile, reflecting a sharp recovery in analyst estimates off a depressed base. The tension between a recovering earnings trajectory and a still-weak near-term price trend is what Thursday's print is being asked to resolve.

Ownership is stable rather than in flux. La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec recently reported as the largest institutional holder at 6.3% of shares, having added 1.24 million shares in the period to June. Janus Henderson holds 6.0% and has been building. None of the 13D/G filers carry activist intent; all registered holders file on Schedule 13G, meaning passive accumulation rather than board-level pressure. Analyst data is too stale to quote.

Thursday's result will test whether the forward earnings recovery embedded in factor scores is translating into actual revenue and margin delivery, or whether the year-to-date price weakness reflects something the headline EPS revisions have not yet captured.