TTMI Analysts Cut Targets After Earnings-Day Rout

TTM Technologies fell 21.6% on October 22 after its quarterly results, and the stock has since partially recovered to $85.50 before tomorrow's scheduled disclosure. The weekly loss of 13.7% is notably sharper than the peer median of around 6%, with AEIS down 9% and COHR off 10% over the same period, suggesting the October print hit TTMI harder than the broad electronic manufacturing selldown.

The most immediate signal going into the second look is the analyst response. Three firms moved within 24 hours of the October 22 results: Truist Securities cut its target from $231 to $170, Stifel from $205 to $165, and Needham from $175 to $150. All three maintained Buy ratings. The consensus mean target now sits at $185.80 against a stock trading at $85.50, a gap large enough that it reflects the target resets rather than fresh conviction, and the Street appears to be marking down expectations rather than abandoning the thesis. Analysts still in the bull camp point to accelerating demand in data center, networking, and aerospace and defence, which together account for more than three-quarters of revenue, plus the $1.1 billion Epiq acquisition that broadens the company's RF portfolio. The bear case centres on optical scale-up reducing demand for complex PCBs, competitive pressure from larger Asian manufacturers, and automotive exposure that has fallen from 11% of revenue to 8% and is forecast to drop further.

Options positioning has calmed materially since the October 22 event. The put/call ratio is now 0.52, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.51 and a z-score of just 0.12. That is a sharp contrast with the elevated defensive positioning documented in the pre-earnings note, where the PCR was running nearly two standard deviations above average. The options market is no longer signalling unusual anxiety. Short interest has similarly eased: at 3.96% of the free float it has pulled back from the 4.1% peak seen before the October 22 print, with a week-on-week decline of about 2.5%. Availability remains extraordinarily loose, well above any level that would suggest borrow friction, and cost to borrow, though up 37% over the past week, is still only 0.45%, a low absolute rate. The short position that built into last week's earnings has partly unwound rather than grown.

The cluster of insider purchases from late August adds a data point that pre-dates the October selloff. CEO Edwin Roks bought 10,000 shares at $111.77 on August 25 in an open-market transaction with no 10b5-1 plan attached. Director Rex Geveden bought 5,000 shares at $104.90 the day before. Both trades were at prices now well above the current level. Retail attention has also picked up: the ORTEX alt-data attention signal registered a z-score of 3.2 against the prior 90 days as of October 20, a multi-month extreme that the previous note flagged.

Tomorrow's print will test whether the post-October 22 reset in targets has moved analyst expectations close enough to reality, and whether the data centre and aerospace backlog the company has pointed to can sustain the margin trajectory that justified a much higher valuation just weeks ago.