GFL Q3 Print Arrives With Shorts Still Retreating

GFL Environmental Inc. reports Q3 results on October 28 with the short-selling community at its most subdued in months, and the stock trading near its best levels of the year.

The retreat in short positioning has continued since the last note published on October 21. Short interest now sits at 1.6% of free float, down another 3% in a single session on October 23 and roughly 31% lower than a month ago. For context, in mid-September short positions ran above 8.4 million shares. By late October that had fallen to fewer than 5.7 million. The lending market reflects this: availability remains exceptionally loose at 484% of short interest, meaning roughly five shares are available to borrow for every one already shorted. Cost to borrow has eased to 0.54%, close to its lowest level in the 30-day window. There is no friction in the borrow market and no sign of short-side conviction building ahead of the print.

The stock has rewarded that retreat. GFL is up 7% over the past month, closing at CAD 64.00. North American waste peers had a strong week too: WCN gained nearly 13% and WM rose 6.5%, suggesting the move is not purely idiosyncratic. The PE multiple has expanded roughly 13% over the past month to around 51x, and price-to-book has climbed by nearly 0.5 turns in the same period, so GFL is entering the print with valuation running hotter than it was a quarter ago. The ORTEX short score has drifted lower this week, from 40.7 on October 13 to 36.8 on October 23, consistent with the unwinding short base.

Institutional ownership tells a layered story. BC Partners remains the largest holder at 17.2% of shares, unchanged as of end-2025. More recently, FMR added 2.9 million shares through September, BlackRock added 5.5 million, and Maverick Capital built a position of 6.4 million shares, all pointing to institutional accumulation ahead of the event. The 13D/G register carries no activist filing. GIC Private Limited trimmed below the 5% disclosure threshold, and FMR's stake edged down slightly in the most recent filing, but the overall direction among active managers has been towards the stock. The analyst consensus price target on record predates 2022 and cannot be used as a guide; the stock at CAD 64 has long since left that figure behind.

Past earnings reactions have been modestly positive: the July 2026 Q2 print produced a 5.2% one-day gain, and the five-day follow-through added another 4.4%. The question tomorrow is whether a stock that has already re-rated sharply through October, and now trades at over 50x earnings, can deliver enough on revenue growth, free cash flow progression and leverage reduction to justify that valuation in a sector where its closest peers are also running well.