Tivoli Heads Into Earnings With Borrow Costs Firm and Shorts Stable

Tivoli A/S reports its next set of results on Thursday, October 29, with the stock flat over the past month and a lending market that has quietly tightened over recent weeks.

The borrow story is the most interesting wrinkle ahead of the print. Cost to borrow has drifted higher, running near 7.9% after a 5.7% rise over the past week, the firmest level since early July when rates briefly collapsed to around 3.7% before snapping back. That dip and recovery pattern suggests the lending market found a new equilibrium in the upper-7% range. Availability is generous at 211%, meaning roughly two shares remain available to borrow for every one already out on loan, well above the 52-week tightest reading of 145%. That looseness limits the squeeze potential, but the gradual firming of borrow costs suggests steady, if unexcited, short-side interest rather than a sudden positioning shift.

Short interest itself tells a measured story. The ORTEX short score sits at 48, the 30th percentile, meaning roughly 70% of stocks carry more short-side pressure. Days-to-cover ranks in the 18th percentile. Neither reading flags Tivoli as a heavily contested name. What the borrow data does show is that whoever holds the short position has been paying a consistent premium for it, around 8% annualised, for months. That is a meaningful carry cost on a stock that has gone nowhere over the past 30 days.

The Street picture is thin, and the ownership structure explains why. Chr. Augustinus Fabrikker holds 57.2% of the company, a controlling stake that has not shifted. Dimensional Fund Advisors is the only other disclosed institutional holder, with a 0.37% position that barely moved in Q3. No analyst activity is fresh enough to be useful here. The valuation snapshot shows an enterprise value north of DKK 3.9 billion against a market cap of roughly DKK 517 million, a gap that reflects the significant debt the company typically carries to fund its park operations. The factor scores paint a mixed picture: the dividend score ranks in the 80th percentile, while the earnings yield sits at the 43rd, consistent with a modest-growth, income-flavoured leisure asset trading at a premium to book.

Earnings history offers a useful reference point. The two most recent quarterly prints, April and August 2026, each produced a negative one-day reaction of just under 0.6% to 0.6%, with the five-day drift also modestly lower in both cases. The pattern is subdued rather than volatile, which matches the stock's flat month. Peer names in the leisure space have been weaker: ROLR fell 12.6% on the week and the Saudi-listed 1820 dropped 10.9%, while CMG shed 4.8%. Tivoli's 0.7% weekly decline looks calm by comparison, though the domestic Danish leisure base means the correlation to those names is loose.

The immediate focus is Thursday's release. Given recent prints moved the stock less than 1% on the day, and with borrow availability still comfortable, the setup to watch is whether any change in seasonal visitor numbers or forward guidance shifts the cost-to-borrow trend, which has been creeping higher since late September.