Nomura Prints Today With Shorts Creeping Higher

Nomura Holdings is the least shorted name in its immediate peer group, but short interest has climbed 28% over the past month to around 1.07 million shares, the highest level since a brief spike at the end of September.

Among global investment banking and brokerage names, Nomura's borrow market remains exceptionally loose. Availability runs at more than 2,100% of short interest, meaning shares available to lend far exceed what is already on loan. Cost to borrow is 1.10%, down roughly 9% on the week, though it has risen about 40% over the past month. That monthly climb traces the same pattern seen in late September, when a quarter-end burst of short demand briefly tightened availability to below 700% before normalising. The current reading is back near mid-October levels, and the lending market carries none of the squeeze characteristics that would amplify a short-side move. Options positioning has shifted somewhat more cautiously, with the put/call ratio at 0.77 against a 20-day average of 0.61, though at less than one standard deviation above the mean that is a modest rather than extreme skew.

The analyst picture for the US-listed ADR is thin. JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral in March 2026, making it the only recent move of note from a major firm. Older actions from Goldman Sachs and Jefferies date back to 2021 and 2023 respectively and carry little weight at this point. The consensus price target on record is significantly below the current $9.11 share price, but that figure dates to late 2020 and should not be taken as a current Street view. What the factor scores do show is a dividend yield that ranks in the 70th percentile of the universe, and an earnings yield in the 73rd, giving income-oriented investors a valuation anchor even as the stock has retreated roughly 9% over the past month.

BlackRock remains the largest external holder with around 277 million shares, though its filed 13G stake has shifted over time. Norges Bank Investment Management added more than 8 million shares as of its last June 30 disclosure, making it one of the more active recent movers among the larger holders. The insider transactions on record for late October are compensation-related grants at nominal values, not open-market conviction buys, and carry no informational weight going into the result.

Today's print will test whether Nomura's domestic trading and wealth management momentum, which drove the stock to near 52-week highs earlier in the year, has held through a quarter that saw the ADR give back nearly a tenth of its value.