M&G's Activist Stake Looms Over Methanex's Q3 Print

Methanex Corporation reports Q3 results today with an activist shareholder on the register and insider buying on a scale that dwarfs anything the short side is doing.

M&G Investment Management holds 15.3% of the company and filed a Schedule 13D in April 2025, the most consequential disclosure type on this register. It trimmed from 16.49% to 15.3% in its most recent amendment, filed September 14, but remains by far the largest holder and the only one on the 13D register. That activist position, held alongside a growing cluster of other large institutional owners, means roughly a third of the company's outstanding shares are in the hands of investors who crossed the 5% reporting threshold. As with all Schedule 13D/G disclosures, stakes are as-last-reported around that threshold; a holder can fall below 5% without filing again.

The insider picture reinforces the constructive lean. Over the 90 days to August 21, insiders were net buyers of roughly 352,000 shares, with net value of approximately USD 23.5 million. The bulk of that came from one insider, Sunil Jagwani, who made a cluster of open-market purchases in late May and early June totalling well over USD 15 million across multiple transactions. A smaller sale of 35,000 shares by the same insider in August was coded as "Other" rather than an open-market sale, which limits its signal value. A director, Alejandro Larrive, sold modest amounts in August, but the net of all activity across the period is firmly positive.

Short sellers are not a meaningful part of this story. Shares short amount to roughly 1.1 million, and while that is up about 22% over the past month in absolute terms, the borrow market tells a different story: availability is at 4,224%, meaning there are more than 42 shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow has fallen sharply, down 37% over the past month to 0.45%. Nothing in the lending data points to conviction on the short side.

The stock closed at CAD 89.66 on Tuesday, up 7.6% over the past month. That compares to a weekly gain of 0.7% against a median of 3.5% for its closest correlated peers, including LYB and DOW, both of which outperformed MX significantly on the week. The Q3 print will test whether Methanex's methanol volumes and pricing held up well enough to justify that divergence from a peer group that has moved more sharply in both directions.