NOV Heads Into Q3 Print With Shorts Building and Bulls Split

NOV reports Q3 results on October 28 with short sellers adding to positions even as the stock rallies, a tension that frames the debate heading into the print.

Short interest has climbed to 7.6% of the free float, up roughly 3.5% in a single session on October 26 and 8.7% over the past month. That makes the short position the largest it has been in the recent window, with about 27.6 million shares sold short against the float. Despite the building short book, borrow conditions offer no squeeze pressure: availability runs at 1,783%, meaning roughly 18 shares remain available to borrow for every one currently lent out. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.44%, even after rising 31% over the past month. Options traders are not adding to the bearish tone. The put/call ratio is 0.06, sitting just below its 20-day average and near its 52-week low, meaning call volume heavily dominates the options market into the event. The stock itself is up 8.4% on the week to $20.55, moving broadly in line with close peers SLB and HAL, both of which gained 8% and 7.5% respectively over the same period.

The analyst community is split in a way that tracks the broader oilfield services debate. Bulls point to a $4.4 billion backlog, a 5% free cash flow yield, and a valuation that looks cheap relative to large-cap peers: NOV trades at roughly 7.6x EV/EBITDA against a sector average closer to 10x. TD Cowen carries a Buy and a $26 target; Susquehanna holds Positive with a $24 target after raising it following the last print. The consensus, however, remains Hold, with 11 of 13 rated analysts sitting on the fence. Citigroup trimmed its target to $21 at end of September, and Barclays holds an Underweight at $20, with the bear case centring on Q2 guidance that pointed to revenue down 6 to 8% year on year and EBITDA as low as $185 million. The Energy Products and Services segment is the biggest drag, with bears arguing that weaker drilling demand and customer capital discipline could keep both segments under pressure through the near term. The mean analyst price target is $22.08, roughly 7% above the current price, a modest implied upside that reflects just how evenly the Street is positioned.

The print itself will test whether NOV can show any stabilisation in its segment margins after a difficult quarter, and whether management's confidence in a second-half recovery in offshore activity and a 2027 capital equipment upcycle has any near-term earnings support to stand on.