O-I Glass Shorts Jump as Analysts Cut Into Earnings

Short sellers have been adding to positions in OI at a notable pace just as the company prepares to report earnings on October 28, while the stock's recent rebound complicates the picture heading into the print.

Short interest has climbed sharply in the days leading up to the release. It now stands at 11.5% of the free float, up 16% in a single session on October 26 and 15.6% over the week. That jump reverses a brief consolidation in mid-October when short interest had pulled back from an earlier peak above 18 million shares seen in late September and early October. Despite the increase in borrowed shares, the borrow market itself remains relaxed: cost to borrow is low at 0.45%, down 12% over the past month, and availability is ample at 767%, well above the 52-week trough of 576%. New shorts can be put on cheaply. Options positioning adds another layer. The put/call ratio at 0.33 is fractionally below its 20-day average of 0.34 and sits well off the 52-week high of 0.58, meaning options traders are not bracing for a sharp selloff despite the short interest build. The stock itself has recovered 8.8% over the past week and 9.7% over the past month to close at $6.43, a partial bounce after a brutal year.

The bull and bear cases are starkly divided, and the analyst community has been moving firmly in one direction. Every recent target-price action has been a cut. Wells Fargo lowered its target to $10 from $12 on October 19 while holding an Overweight rating. RBC Capital cut to $7 from $8 on October 13, keeping Sector Perform. Truist Securities trimmed to $8 from $10, also on October 12. Earlier in October, UBS downgraded to Neutral from Buy and slashed its target to $6 from $11, putting one firm's target at the current share price. The mean analyst target remains $8.04, implying around 25% upside from current levels, but the direction of travel is unambiguous. Bears point to soft glass volumes across beer, wine, and spirits, European competitor oversupply, energy headwinds estimated at $225 million to $250 million for fiscal 2026, a net debt ratio of 3.8x, and free cash flow that is likely negative this year. Bulls counter with the Fit to Win cost savings programme targeting $650 million of cumulative savings, strong Americas execution, high utilisation rates, and the company's own 2026 EBITDA guidance of $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion. The EV/EBITDA multiple at 4.9x is low in absolute terms, and the earnings yield factor ranks in the 99th percentile, which is where the value case rests.

Historical earnings reactions add context rather than comfort. The two most recent prints saw the stock fall 18.9% on the day and 16.3% on the day respectively, with five-day losses of 17.5% and 17.6%. Both episodes were punishing, and both were followed by the sustained wave of analyst target cuts that defines the current setup. The short score at 55.6 is the highest in the recent history window shown, up from 51.8 two weeks ago, consistent with the acceleration in short interest.

The print will test whether O-I Glass can deliver quarterly results and guidance that interrupt the pattern of large post-earnings declines, and whether the Fit to Win savings story is progressing quickly enough to offset the ongoing pressure on volumes, energy costs, and the balance sheet.