TotalEnergies Reports Tomorrow With Borrow Market Exceptionally Loose

TotalEnergies SE reports third-quarter results on October 29, trading at €83.00 after a 3.8% weekly gain that broadly matched the 3.6% median advance across its closest peers.

The lending market tells a story of almost complete disinterest from short sellers. Availability has climbed to its highest observable level, with shares available to borrow now dwarfing actual short demand by a factor of roughly 100. The borrow rate, at 0.69%, has crept up about 38% over the past week but remains firmly in low-cost territory and well below the spikes seen in late September and early October, when it briefly touched 2.4%. That earlier elevated period coincided with peak short positioning; since then, availability has loosened dramatically as shorts covered. The ORTEX short score, at 29.2, has drifted down from 31.1 two weeks ago, reinforcing the picture of receding short-side pressure.

The valuation context gives income-focused holders reason for comfort. TTE trades at a forward P/E of around 8.1, an EV/EBITDA of roughly 4.7, and a dividend factor score in the 93rd percentile, meaning few large-cap peers offer a comparable yield profile. Analyst targets imply around 19% upside to the current price, a meaningful gap that has been building through a period of positive EPS momentum. The 30-day and 90-day EPS revision scores rank in the 77th and 68th percentiles respectively, pointing to a run of upward estimate revisions ahead of the print. Against that, the forward EPS growth estimate carries a negative year-on-year component, tempering the growth case.

On the ownership side, Amundi remains the largest external institutional holder at 8.79% of the class per its Schedule 13G/A filed October 26, down slightly from 8.97% previously. The fund is classified as a passive holder and the 13D/G register carries no activist presence. Norges Bank Investment Management added over 11 million shares in the period to June 30, while Vanguard and Amundi Asset Management each added materially in the quarter to September 30. The employee share ownership plan remains the single largest holder at 6.3%. Recent insider activity was limited to small subscription-plan transactions by executive committee members at prices around €75, all of low significance individually.

A note published ahead of this preview flagged adjusted Q3 net income of $3.6 billion, ahead of analyst expectations, with the dividend maintained. ENI, SHEL and BP. all fell between 0.8% and 1.8% on Tuesday while TTE slipped 1.0%, a broadly parallel session. The October 29 report will test whether the Q3 beat was sufficient to sustain the gap between the current share price and analyst targets, and whether management commentary on energy transition spending and LNG volumes shifts the earnings revision trend that has supported the stock.