Ambev shorts at a record low, options turn defensive before Q3 results

ABEV carries the lightest short position in its ORTEX history. That stands in contrast to the options market, where put buying has pushed the put/call ratio to its most defensive reading in weeks, right before tomorrow's Q3 earnings release.

Where ABEV sits among peers

Among large Latin American brewers and beverage names, ABEV is one of the least crowded short positions by share count. Short interest has fallen to 81.8 million shares, down 43% in a single month. The pace of that unwind, from 136 million shares in the first week of October to below 82 million now, has no parallel in the current ORTEX dataset. Whatever bearish case drove that positioning has been unwound at speed.

The two signals pulling in different directions

Short sellers have retreated. Options traders have not.

The put/call ratio closed at 0.51 on Tuesday. That is 2.1 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.40. It is not a historic extreme by any measure, the 52-week high stands at 1.68, but the sudden jump from a baseline that had been running near 0.39 to 0.41 for most of October is a clear shift. Defensive options positioning is rising into the print even as the short book shrinks.

The lending market adds texture. Availability has tightened to 90.6%, down sharply from 174% a week ago. More shares are being borrowed relative to what is available, even as the absolute short position is smaller. Cost to borrow is 1.16%, modest by any standard and far below the 7.65% spike of late September.

Analyst backdrop

The Street has been moving steadily against ABEV. B of A Securities downgraded the stock to Underperform on October 7. UBS rates it Sell with a $2.90 target. Scotiabank stepped down to Sector Perform in July. No upgrade has appeared in the dataset in over a year. The stock trades at $2.87, below the mean analyst price target of $3.10.

Data summary

• Short interest: 81.8 million shares, lowest in ORTEX dataset, down 43% in one month
• Put/call ratio: 0.51, z-score of 2.1 vs 20-day mean of 0.40
• Availability: 90.6%, down from 174% one week ago
• Cost to borrow: 1.16%, well below the late-September high of 7.65%
• Next earnings: 29 October 2026, before market open

The level to watch after the print: whether short interest finds a floor here or resumes its descent below 80 million shares.