Minerva's Borrow Dries Up as Stock Slides 23%

MRVS.Y heads into its November 11 earnings date with a striking tension: the lending market for its OTC-listed ADR is fully locked, while the stock itself has shed nearly a quarter of its value in a single week.

The borrow story is the standout detail here. Availability has dropped to zero, meaning every share in the lending pool is currently lent out, the tightest the borrow has been across the past year. That level has held since late September, with only a brief respite on October 15 when availability edged above 1.5% before snapping back to zero. Cost to borrow has risen 56% over the past week to 2.73%, though it remains well below the peaks of February 2026, when it topped 12%. Short interest itself is a minor story: it amounts to roughly 0.002% of the free float, a negligible level, so the zero availability reflects tight total supply rather than any aggressive bear thesis on this name. Borrowing conditions look constrained by scarce OTC lending inventory, not by a crowded short book.

The picture from valuation factor scores is more interesting than the current price action alone might suggest. Minerva ranks in the 99th percentile on earnings yield and the 98th percentile on both EV/EBIT and days-to-cover, pointing to a stock that screens as deeply cheap relative to its earnings power and enterprise value. The dividend score ranks in the 94th percentile, though the dividend history for the ADR is stale, with the last recorded payment dating to 2022. The short score has drifted lower over the past two weeks, easing from around 54 in mid-October to 50.5 now, a mild move in the direction that suggests slightly less short-side pressure. The 90-day EPS momentum factor sits in just the 9th percentile, a reminder that analyst estimates for the underlying Brazilian business have been moving lower.

The ownership structure adds important context. Two anchor holders dominate: VDQ Holdings holds 29.2% and the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company holds 24.6%, together accounting for more than half the shares outstanding. BlackRock added roughly 464,000 shares through September, while Dimensional Fund Advisors picked up around 79,000. With so much stock locked in cornerstone hands and lending availability at zero, the tradeable float is narrow, which amplifies price moves in both directions.

Earnings are due November 11. The recent history of the underlying company's reported figures shows a consistent pattern of next-day declines after results: the two most recent prints produced day-one moves of around minus 4.5% to minus 8.8%, with a recovery over the subsequent five days in the August 2026 instance. Whether the current week's 23% sell-off has already pulled forward some of that reaction risk is the question worth watching into the release.