TRI Heads Into Earnings with Woodbridge Selling and a Sharp Tuesday Drop

Thomson Reuters enters its November 3 earnings release with an awkward backdrop: the stock fell 4.5% on October 27 even as it holds a 3.2% gain on the week, and its controlling shareholder has been a steady net seller for months.

The ownership story here is more interesting than anything in the lending market. The Woodbridge Company, the Thomson family vehicle that holds 70.7% of shares, sold roughly 1.5 million net shares in the 90 days to late August, realising approximately C$184 million in value across multiple sessions at prices in the C$143 to C$150 range. That cluster of sales happened when the stock was trading materially below where it closed this week at C$163.53, meaning Woodbridge sold into what now looks like a better entry. Separately, Thomson Investments Limited, a related family entity, filed a Schedule 13D amendment in April 2026 disclosing a 70.56% stake, up fractionally from 70.5%. The activist designation reflects control rather than agitation, but with a 13D on the register the disclosure is worth noting. Per the filing rules, stakes are as-last-disclosed, and the April figure is now more than six months old.

Short interest is not the story here. At 0.62% of the free float, bearish positioning is negligible. Shorts have edged higher over the past month, up about 14%, but from such a low base that the absolute level remains inconsequential. Borrow availability is ample at 289%, meaning there are nearly three shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow jumped 79% over the week to 0.96%, which sounds dramatic but still represents a low-rate borrow in absolute terms. The ORTEX short score of 40, ranking in the 34th percentile, confirms this is not a heavily contested stock on the short side.

The Street picture is more complicated. A PE of 24.3 has expanded by roughly 4.4 points over the past 30 days, tracking the stock's 17% monthly gain. EV/EBITDA is running at 15.6x, down slightly on the week. The dividend score ranks in the 93rd percentile, reflecting the consistency of the payout, while the EV/EBIT factor sits in just the 20th percentile, a signal that valuation remains stretched relative to peers on an earnings-power basis. A recent note from ORTEX cited 14% EBITDA growth to $222 million with margins expanding modestly, driven by 12% organic recurring revenue gains in legal and tax services. Bears point to margin compression risk and AI disruption in core SaaS segments as the counterweight to those numbers. Among peers, the Tuesday selloff was broad: Broadridge, ADP, Gartner and Veritiv all fell 2% to 4% on the day, suggesting the move in TRI was partly sector-driven rather than stock-specific.

The earnings history adds context. The August 2026 Q2 print sent the stock down 8.5% the next day and it slipped a further 6.7% over the following week, the largest negative reaction in recent history. The prior quarter saw a negligible one-day move followed by a 6% gain over five days. The asymmetry between those two reactions suggests the stock remains sensitive to guidance and margin commentary rather than headline revenue beats.

With results due on November 3, the key question is whether the stock's 17% monthly rally already prices in the kind of organic growth momentum management has been signalling, or whether Tuesday's 4.5% drop was the market beginning to hedge that assumption ahead of the print.