TotalEnergies Reports Q3 With Borrow Market at Its Loosest in Over a Year

TotalEnergies SE closes the week at €83.00, up 3.8%, with third-quarter results due tomorrow and the lending market signalling that short sellers have almost entirely stepped aside.

Availability has widened to its highest recorded level in the ORTEX dataset, with shares available to borrow outnumbering those actually borrowed by a factor of roughly 100 to one. That is a dramatic reversal from early October, when availability was closer to 2,000% and the borrow rate briefly touched 2.4% on September 30. Since that peak in short-side demand, shorts have covered consistently: availability has loosened week after week, and the borrow rate has settled back to 0.61%, down roughly 23% over the past month. The ORTEX short score has drifted to 29.3, off from 30.2 two weeks ago, reinforcing the picture of a market where bearish conviction on TTE has faded into the background.

The valuation case for longs is straightforward. TTE trades at a forward P/E near 8.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.7, with a dividend factor score in the 93rd percentile of the ORTEX universe, meaning very few large-cap names match its yield profile. Analyst targets cluster around €98.70, implying roughly 19% upside from the current price. EPS momentum scores are strong at the 77th percentile over 30 days and the 68th percentile over 90 days, suggesting the Street has been revising estimates higher into the print. The earnings yield factor scores at the 75th percentile, and the utilization rank at the 73rd, together pointing to a name where most of the bearish pressure has already unwound.

The week's outperformance was not isolated to TTE. Across the peer group, EQNR gained 3.1% on the week and VAR advanced 3.7%, while SHEL lagged at 0.7% and BP. gained just 1.1%. TTE's 3.8% weekly advance was therefore at the stronger end of the integrated energy cohort rather than an outlier, which points to sector-level tailwinds rather than a TTE-specific re-rating. All eight closest peers fell on Tuesday, with ENI dropping 2.6% and BP. off 2.9% on the day, suggesting late-week selling pressure across the group.

On institutional ownership, Amundi filed a 13G/A on October 26 showing its stake edged down to 8.79% from 8.97%, a modest trim but still a substantial anchor position. The employee share plan (Total SA ESOP) added around 1.3 million shares in the most recent reporting period and remains the largest single holder at 6.3% of shares. Vanguard added nearly 4.9 million shares over the same window. Insider activity in October was limited to small share-plan subscriptions by Executive Committee members at prices around €75 to €76, well below the current price.

Prior earnings reactions have been modest in both directions. The September 2026 print produced a 2.4% one-day decline and a 5.2% five-day pullback. The July 2026 result went the other way, with a 2.2% one-day gain that held through the following week. The range of reactions is narrow, which is consistent with a stock where the borrow market is loose and short interest is minimal: there is no obvious short-covering fuel on the upside, and no crowded positioning to unwind on the downside.

The specific thing to watch tomorrow is whether Q3 adjusted net income holds near the $3.6 billion level that beat expectations last quarter, and what management says about the cadence of shareholder returns given the current oil price environment.