Stellantis Bears Down Into Earnings as Shorts Hold Firm at Multi-Year Lows

STLAM reported Q3 results today with the stock already down more than 59% year-to-date, and the lending market confirms shorts have been rebuilding quietly even as the price has collapsed.

The positioning picture is less dramatic than the share price decline might suggest, but the direction of travel is clear. Short interest ranks in just the 10th percentile of the market universe, meaning this is not a heavily shorted name in absolute terms. Yet the ORTEX short score has climbed to 62.9, up from 57.9 two weeks ago, its highest reading in the available history. Borrow costs have followed: the cost to borrow rose 11% over the past week and is up 34% over the past month to 1.41%, a meaningful move for a large-cap name even if the absolute level remains modest. Availability of shares to borrow is ample at 181%, well above its 52-week tightest point of 176%, so there is no squeeze pressure in the lending pool. The setup is one of gradually tightening shorts rather than any acute positioning extreme.

The Street remains more constructive than the share price implies, though the disconnect is stark. The analyst consensus mean price target is EUR 5.32, against a close of EUR 3.71 on Tuesday, implying more than 43% upside from current levels. The analyst recommendation divergence factor scores in the 96th percentile, meaning the gap between where the stock trades and where analysts think it should be is exceptionally wide. Yet that optimism has repeatedly failed to find a footing: the earnings yield factor scores in just the 10th percentile and EPS surprise in the 17th, reflecting a pattern of missed expectations. Valuation is genuinely extreme. The price-to-book ratio sits at 0.19 and the EV/EBITDA multiple at 2.5x. Those numbers look cheap on any screen, but they have looked cheap for months. The most recent quarterly print, disclosed today, saw operating profit fall 48% year-on-year with full-year guidance cut again. That is the context in which the Street's targets have failed to close the gap.

Institutional ownership tells its own story. The register is anchored by long-term strategic holders. Lingotto Investment Management, the Agnelli family vehicle, holds 15.5% of shares. Etablissements Peugeot Freres holds 7.7% and Bpifrance 6.6%. None of those three reported any change in their position at the last disclosure. Among more active holders, BlackRock added roughly 7.6 million shares as of October 6, and Goldman Sachs added 1.3 million as of October 20. Against that, Norges Bank Investment Management cut its stake by around 7 million shares at its last reported date. The activist register carries a flag worth noting: Caisse des Depots filed a Schedule 13D, indicating active rather than passive intent, at 10.9% of the class. That filing dates to February 2025 and should be treated as stale given the 621 days elapsed since. Stakes are as last disclosed, and positions may have changed materially without a further filing requirement.

The September insider activity rounds out the picture. Eight C-suite and senior executives sold shares on September 4 at prices around EUR 5.54, including the CFO, the Chief Engineering and Technology Officer, and the General Counsel. The Head of Design added smaller sales later in September at EUR 4.83. Every one of these trades was a sale, and the stock has fallen a further 33% since those September 4 transactions. The 90-day net is nominally positive in share count, but that appears to reflect the structure of the data rather than any meaningful buying. There has been no open-market purchase recorded in the recent history provided.

Among peers, the week's performance has been broadly weak but Stellantis has underperformed most of them. RNO fell 6.5% on the week, the steepest drop in the group. MBG was off 3.8% and F down 3.6%, both close to Stellantis's own 3.2% weekly decline. GM was the outlier, gaining 4.5% on the week, widening the divergence between the Detroit names and the European manufacturers. VOW3 was the most resilient of the European group, slipping just 1.2%.

What to watch next is whether today's earnings update prompts any fresh analyst target revisions, and whether the gap between the consensus EUR 5.32 target and the current price narrows through upgrades or continues to close from the top down as the quarter's numbers circulate through the Street. The next formal earnings event is not scheduled until February 2027.