EXE shorts hold at one-year highs after Q3 results land

Expand Energy Corporation now has 12.56 million shares borrowed against it, the highest level in at least a year, built up over six weeks of near-continuous accumulation that has pushed short interest to 5.27% of the free float.

The speed of that build is the most striking feature. Short interest rose 18% in the past week and 46% over the past month. The position began expanding in mid-September from around 8.6 million shares and has added roughly 4 million shares since then, growing in almost every session. The week ending October 27 saw the largest single-week jump in the series. Yet the lending market offers no support for a squeeze narrative. Cost to borrow is just 0.46%, barely changed over the month. Availability sits at around 1,091%, meaning about eleven shares remain available to lend for every one already borrowed. Short sellers have grown their position sharply, but they are paying almost nothing for the privilege and face no scarcity pressure.

Options positioning diverges sharply from that bearish accumulation. The put/call ratio is at 0.79, more than 2.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.00, and close to the 52-week low of 0.72. Call buyers have dominated the options market through the same period that short sellers were building. The ORTEX short score has climbed from 38.3 on October 14 to 43.3 now, reflecting the rising short interest, but remains well inside neutral territory and ranks in only the 31st percentile of the broader universe. The two signals are pulling in opposite directions: a growing short book on one side, and options traders positioned for upside on the other.

The Street is broadly constructive but has spent October trimming targets. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight but cut its target from $129 to $124. UBS kept its Buy and moved its target to $120. Multiple firms, including Mizuho, Raymond James, and Bernstein, also lowered targets while holding positive ratings. The mean target across the analyst group is $123.33, roughly 30% above the current price of $94.62. The stock trades at a PE of 10.4 and EV/EBITDA of 4.5, both modest for the sector. Earnings yield ranks in the 84th percentile of the ORTEX universe and EV/EBIT in the 81st, pointing to a stock the market is pricing at a discount relative to its earnings power. The dividend score ranks in the 88th percentile, though the dividend history on file dates to the Chesapeake Energy era and should not be read as a current commitment.

Among its closest peers, EQT gained 2.6% on the day and 2.6% on the week. AR rose 8.4% over the week and CNX rose 8.4% as well. RRC was the standout, up 29% on the week. EXE's 2.1% weekly gain trails that peer median by a wide margin, suggesting the stock absorbed its earnings release with less enthusiasm than the broader natural gas cohort. Wikipedia attention has picked up, with a retail attention z-score of 2.09 against EXE's own 90-day history, consistent with the earnings event drawing eyes to the name. Q3 results landed on October 28, and the next scheduled event is not until February 16, 2027, leaving the short interest build and the peer underperformance as the data points most worth tracking in the weeks ahead.