NuScale Shorts Rebuild as Earnings Loom Next Week

NuScale Power has bounced 8% in a single session to $5.70, but the week's recovery masks a sharper story: short sellers added heavily even as the stock was being beaten down, and next week's earnings arrive with the lending market tightening fast.

Short interest has climbed to 32.6% of the free float, its highest level in at least a year, and the 17% week-on-week rise is roughly 1.6 standard deviations above NuScale's typical weekly move. The jump came almost entirely at the start of the week, when short positions leapt from around 77.5 million shares on October 23 to 91 million on October 26, a single-week build of roughly 13.5 million shares. Availability in the lending pool has tightened sharply alongside that build: it dropped from 38.6% on October 26 to 21.4% on October 27, meaning only about one share remains available to borrow for every four already lent out. The cost to borrow has risen 18% over the week to 1.05%, up from below 0.70% in mid-October, though still modest in absolute terms. Against the backdrop of the 52-week low availability reading of 5.2%, the borrow market is tightening but not yet stressed.

Options positioning points in a different direction. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.36, near its 52-week low of 0.35, and is about one standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.41. That means call volume is dominating, suggesting a portion of the market is positioned for a bounce rather than further downside. The ORTEX short score has drifted higher through the week to 69.5, ranking in the 5th percentile of the broader universe on short-score positioning, a reading that reflects concentrated bearish pressure. The two signals do not easily reconcile: short sellers rebuilt aggressively, yet options traders are leaning long.

The analyst picture has continued to erode. B. Riley cut its target from $15 to $10 on October 28, maintaining a Buy rating that now sits well above the current price. That follows Barclays downgrading to Underweight with a $5 target on October 20 and Citigroup trimming its Sell target from $6.50 to $4 on October 21. The direction of travel has been consistent for months: the consensus mean target of around $11.07 reflects several stale, higher targets still pulling the average up. Citigroup's $4 target is actually below today's close. The analyst recommendation factor score ranks at just the 4th percentile, and the earnings yield factor sits at the 7th percentile, reflecting a business with deeply negative earnings: the price-to-book multiple is 0.95 and falling, the only conventional metric near a traditional value threshold. The bull case, last updated in February, rests on the TVA and ENTRA1 partnership targeting 6 GW of nuclear capacity through the 2030s. The bear case points to regulatory delays, cheaper competing energy sources, and a cash-burning balance sheet that generated a negative return on assets of over 12%.

Fluor Corporation remains on the 13D register as an activist holder, though its last disclosed stake has fallen to 3.9% from 7.8%, reflecting steady reduction. The Vanguard Group filed a 13G showing its stake had dropped to zero in March 2026. BlackRock and Van Eck are the largest institutional holders at 6.3% and 7.1% respectively, both having added materially in the September quarter. Insider activity has been mechanical rather than conviction-driven: CFO Hamady Robert Ramsey executed a series of option exercises and same-day sales under a 10b5-1 plan in August and October, resulting in a 90-day net sale of approximately $981,000. Planned sales under a 10b5-1 arrangement carry a different weight to discretionary selling. Stakes disclosed under Schedule 13D/G are as-last-reported around the 5% threshold; a holder falling below 5% is not required to file again.

Recent earnings prints have produced modest moves: the stock fell 3% and then recovered over five days after the August report, and the prior event produced a less-than-1% decline. Q3 results are scheduled for November 5. With short interest at a year-high, borrow availability tightening, and targets continuing to compress, the Q3 print and any updated project timeline commentary will determine whether the short rebuild proves well-timed or whether the options market's call skew has the better read on near-term direction.