Bunge Q3 Print Arrives With Options Still Tilted Bullish Despite 10% Q2 Wipeout

Bunge Global SA fell just 1.4% over the past week, holding up better than close peers ADM and DAR, which dropped 2.7% and 6.1% respectively, even as the stock trades down 7.5% over the past month to $100.80.

Options markets remain firmly call-heavy into the Q3 release, the most striking feature of the current positioning. The put/call ratio closed at 0.32 on October 28, below its 20-day average of 0.35 and near the lower end of its 52-week range of 0.24 to 1.05. That call skew has persisted despite a brutal Q2 reaction: the stock fell more than 10% on the day of the July 29 print and shed a further 9% over the following five sessions. Options traders absorbed that experience and have not reached for protection ahead of the next report. The borrow market reinforces this: availability is at 1,333% of short interest, meaning shares remain easy to borrow, and short interest itself is a modest 3.9% of the float. Borrow costs are just 0.44%, down modestly over the past month.

The analyst community is broadly constructive, with most major firms holding Overweight or Buy ratings and a consensus price target near $140, roughly 40% above the current price. JP Morgan nudged its target down marginally to $139 from $140 in mid-October, the one note of caution in an otherwise supportive bloc. Bears point to the core problem Bunge has been navigating: agribusiness EBIT has declined sharply from weaker processing results, with the Refined and Specialty Oils and Milling segments also trailing prior-year comparisons. Bulls counter that the company has guided FY25 results ahead of earlier outlooks, leaning on financial services improvements, resilient global grains volumes, and a biofuel demand recovery tied to improving policy clarity in crush markets.

The ownership structure gives Bunge an unusual backstory heading into any quarterly print. Two Schedule 13D filings, each signalling active rather than passive intent, place Glencore plc at roughly 17% of shares and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board at around 14% by last institutional disclosure. Together they account for nearly 30% of the register. A 13D stance means these holders have disclosed a purpose beyond simply holding for index exposure. As always with 13D/G positions, stakes are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold, and a holder falling below 5% may not file again.

The Q3 print tests whether the processing margin environment has stabilised enough to stop the earnings decline that drove the Q2 selloff, and whether the full-year guidance upgrade carries enough credibility to close the gap between $100 and the Street's $140 target.