Wells Fargo drops its eBay bear case a day after earnings

Wells Fargo upgraded eBay to Equal-Weight this morning, raising its price target 16.5% to $106 from $91. The move is a direct reversal: analyst Ken Gawrelski had trimmed that same $91 target just 17 days ago while holding Underweight. Yesterday's Q3 print apparently changed his view.

The timing matters. The stock closed at $118.02 on October 28, the day of the Q3 report, meaning both the old and new Wells Fargo targets remain below the current price. Even after the upgrade, Gawrelski's $106 target sits 10% below where the stock trades today. Morgan Stanley's Nathan Feather, who raised his target to $132 on October 12 and maintained Overweight, is far closer to the prevailing price. The mean analyst target stands at $119.91.

What the Positioning Data Shows

Short interest fell another 10.2% over the past week to 3.27% of the free float, the lowest level in 30 days. This continues a retreat that was already well underway before the earnings print. At this level, short interest is not a dominant force in the stock. The ORTEX short score has declined steadily from 38.2 on October 16 to 36.0 today, consistent with that unwinding.

Availability in the lending market is extraordinarily loose at 6,152%, up 33% over the week. There are roughly 62 shares available to borrow for every one currently borrowed. Borrowing costs sit at 0.54%, barely changed on the week. Nothing in the lending market suggests any stress or squeeze dynamic.

Options positioning has normalised since the pre-earnings spike. The put/call ratio of 0.88 on October 23 was 2.3 standard deviations above its 20-day mean. By October 28 it had retreated to 0.88, sitting fractionally below the 20-day average. The defensive hedging demand that preceded the print has largely unwound.

The Overhang That Remains

Retail attention is running at a z-score of 2.0 against eBay's own 90-day history, as measured by the ORTEX alt data layer using Wikipedia views and ORTEX page traffic as of October 21. That is above-average attention, though this dataset has not been shown to lead eBay's reported figures.

The broader ownership picture has not changed. GameStop Corp. holds a 13D activist stake of 9.8% as last disclosed on July 17, grown from 9.0% previously across five filings since May. A Schedule 13D signals active intent. That dynamic predates the earnings print and remains unresolved.

ORTEX puts the probability of eBay joining the Nasdaq-100 at the December 2026 Annual Review at 44%. The stock currently sits 16.4% above the entry line at $98.72, so the candidacy is comfortable at present prices. The rank date is November 30, with any announcement expected December 11 and an effective date of December 21. That is the next hard date on the calendar.

Data Summary

• Wells Fargo upgrade to Equal-Weight, target raised to $106 from $91 (October 29)
• Current price $118.02; mean analyst target $119.91; Morgan Stanley target $132
• Short interest 3.27% of free float, down 10.2% over the week, 30-day low
• Availability 6,152%, up 33% over the week; cost to borrow 0.54%
• ORTEX short score 36.0, down from 38.2 on October 16
• Put/call ratio 0.88, roughly at its 20-day average after the pre-earnings spike on October 23
• Nasdaq-100 addition probability 44% (ORTEX forecast); rank date November 30