Alliant Energy Shorts Build as Earnings Land Today

Alliant Energy, a regulated Midwest electric utility, reports Q3 results this morning with short sellers holding one of the more elevated positions in the sector.

Short interest is a genuine story here. Bears have accumulated 10.7% of the free float, a level that ranks in just the 6th percentile of the ORTEX universe on short score rank, meaning few stocks carry a heavier short position relative to their standing. The ORTEX short score has drifted up to 66.3, the highest in the past two weeks, with shorts adding roughly 10% to their position over the past month. Days to cover run near 9.8, based on the latest FINRA fortnightly data, meaning any reversal would take bears the better part of two weeks to unwind. Yet the borrow market tells a calmer story: availability is generous at 366%, meaning there are more than three shares available to lend for every share currently borrowed, and the cost to borrow sits at just 0.47%. Shorts face no squeeze pressure from the lending side. The stock itself has gained 11.8% over the past month, closing at $70.68, which puts it slightly below the analyst consensus target of $74.88.

The analyst community is cautious rather than bullish. HSBC initiated coverage this week at Hold with a $69.50 target, effectively flagging fair value at current levels. Barclays cut its target from $73 to $68 earlier in October, maintaining an Equal-Weight rating. BMO Capital continues to carry an Outperform, though its target has drifted down from $83 to $78 through a series of trims over the summer. The consensus view appears to be that the regulated utility profile is sound, the forward earnings growth story is real (the 12-month forward EPS growth rank sits at the 91st percentile of the ORTEX universe), but that the 12-month re-rating in the stock has already captured much of that. The EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded by roughly 0.13 turns over the past 30 days, and the P/B ratio has risen 0.22 turns in the same period. Options positioning is broadly neutral: the put/call ratio of 0.51 is slightly above its 20-day average of 0.46, but well within one standard deviation of normal.

On the ownership side, the three largest holders, BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street, all added modestly in the most recent quarter. T. Rowe Price built a more meaningful position, adding roughly 905,000 shares as of September 30. FMR added over 2.1 million shares in the period ending August 31. None of this points to institutional alarm, but equally no single holder is making a dramatic statement. Insider activity over the past 90 days is essentially flat, with a net disposal of fewer than a hundred shares by the CFO.

The print will test whether the regulated-utility earnings trajectory justifies a stock trading above its freshest analyst targets, against a backdrop where short sellers have been steadily adding exposure through October even as the shares have risen.