Methanex Q3: M&G Still Holds, Insiders Still Buying

Methanex Corporation reports Q3 results today with the same two forces that dominated the pre-print picture two days ago still intact: an activist on the register and an insider buying cluster that remains the defining ownership story into the release.

M&G Investment Management holds 15.3% of the company after trimming from 16.49% in its most recent 13D/A amendment, filed September 14. That filing type, a Schedule 13D, signals active rather than passive intent. M&G is the only filer on the 13D register. Key Group Long Term Investments LP sits at 8.3% under a 13G, up from 6.9% as of its September 17 amendment. Wellington Management crossed the 5% threshold in May 2026 and last reported 5.8%. Together, disclosed holders above the 5% threshold account for roughly a third of shares outstanding. As with all 13D/G positions, these stakes are as-last-disclosed around that threshold; a holder can fall below 5% without filing again.

The insider picture has not changed since the August 21 as-of date. Sunil Jagwani made a large cluster of open-market purchases in late May and early June, accumulating well over USD 15 million worth of stock across multiple transactions. Net insider activity over the 90 days to August 21 came to roughly 352,000 shares bought, with a net value near USD 23.5 million. The only subsequent insider activity on the record is a small discretionary sale by a more junior officer in August, which does not materially alter that picture.

Short interest is negligible as a signal here. Short availability is extraordinarily loose, over 4,100% relative to shares currently borrowed, meaning new shorts face no borrow constraint whatsoever. The ORTEX short score of 29, ranking in the 64th percentile, reflects a modest bearish lean in the lending market, but the actual level of short interest as a fraction of the float is too small to move the story. Cost to borrow ticked up 75% over the past week to 0.82%, but from such a low base that it remains firmly in "easy borrow" territory.

The stock closed at CAD 87.77 on Thursday, down 1.6% on the day but up 3.0% over the past week. That compares with a peer median of roughly 4.7% over the same period, with DOW gaining 12.3% and OLN up 10.3%, meaning MX has trailed the chemical sector recovery this week despite its positive move. The factor scores flag an earnings yield ranking in the 85th percentile, consistent with the deep value argument. The analyst consensus data is stale by several years and cannot be used.

Today's print is therefore less a referendum on short positioning, which is minimal, and more a test of whether the methanol pricing environment in Q3 was sufficient to validate the conviction that M&G and Jagwani have been expressing with real capital.