Ingram Micro Short Interest Hits a Year High Before Earnings

Short sellers have built their largest position in INGM in at least a year, with shares short rising 30% over the past month to 3.1% of the free float. The move accelerated in the final two weeks of October, with the position jumping roughly 10% in a single week to reach 7.37 million shares as of October 28.

The stock has moved in the opposite direction. INGM gained 4% over the past week, outpacing the median one-week change of roughly 0.3% among its closest peers including SNX and AVT. The one-month gain stretches to 8%, leaving the stock at $28.61. Borrowing costs have eased despite the rise in short interest, dropping 26% over the past week to 0.36%. Availability remains extremely loose at 2,779%, meaning there are far more shares available to borrow than are currently out on loan, so the lending market is placing no constraint on new short positions.

The analyst community is cautious rather than hostile. Morgan Stanley cut its target to $30 from $33 in mid-September while keeping an Equal-Weight rating, and Deutsche Bank initiated at Hold with a $30 target the week before. The consensus mean target of $32.62 implies about 14% upside from current levels, but the direction of recent moves has been downward. The bull case rests on Xvantage and AI infrastructure momentum, which produced a 2 to 3% revenue tailwind in the first quarter and contributed to a double-digit year-over-year revenue gain across all regions. Bears point to demand pull-forwards fading, PC weakness beyond the first quarter, a flagged $0.01 to $0.03 EPS headwind from geopolitical dynamics, and margin pressure from rebates and working-capital needs. The PE of 7.7x and EV/EBITDA of 5.4x keep valuation firmly in value territory, a factor score of 96th percentile on EV/EBIT supports that read.

The ownership picture is dominated by Platinum Equity, which held 70% of shares as of mid-September but has been a consistent seller. The private equity firm sold roughly 15 million shares in September alone for around $410 million, trimming its stake from 85.1% to 76.9% as last disclosed in August. The October 23 filings show a cluster of Form F transactions from the CEO, CFO and other senior executives, all compensation-related tax withholdings rather than discretionary sales, carrying less signalling weight.

Today's print will test whether the volume-driven revenue model can sustain margin discipline as pull-forward demand fades and the Street's cautious targets close in on the current price.