NU shorts surge 22% in a week as calls flood the options market

Four distinct data streams on NU converged this week, and the options market is telling a sharply different story from the short sellers.

Short interest in Nu Holdings climbed 22% in a single week, reaching 4.1% of free float as of October 28, with 156.4 million shares short. That weekly move is 2.6 standard deviations above the company's typical weekly change over the past year. The stock fell 18% over the same five days, against a median peer decline of 25.6%, meaning Nu held up relatively better than most of its Brazilian bank comparables. Peer INTR dropped 38%, while Itaú Unibanco and Bradesco each fell around 18% to 30%.

Short sellers step in after the drop

The 22% weekly rise in shares short is not a slow build. From October 20 to October 28, short positions grew from 128 million shares to 156 million, a move that outpaces anything in the prior 30-day window. The ORTEX short score rose to 36.9 from 33.7 a week ago, its highest in the dataset shown.

What the borrow market does not show is distress. Availability sits at 1,277% of shares already borrowed, meaning roughly 13 shares remain available for every one currently lent out. The lending pool is loose. Cost to borrow is 0.46%, historically low and down 11% over the past week despite the jump in short demand. Shorts are entering at low cost with ample supply.

Options buyers push back

The put-call ratio closed at 0.50 on October 29, two standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.59. The 52-week low is 0.41, so this is not a record, but the direction is notable: as short interest built, options positioning moved toward calls. The two signals are pointing in opposite directions.

Analysts and the price gap

The mean analyst price target stands at $18.93, against a close of $12.05 on October 29. UBS raised its target to $20.50 on October 20, maintaining a Buy. JP Morgan raised to $23 on October 6. Both moves came before the 18% weekly decline, so the gap between street targets and market price has widened sharply. The last downgrade came from Itau BBA in September, which moved to Market Perform with a $18 target, still well above current levels.

BlackRock added 15.1 million shares as of September 30. Capital Research and Management added 20.4 million shares in the same period. JP Morgan Asset Management added 13.1 million shares. These are the most recent reported changes, and they predate the current drawdown.

What to watch

Earnings are scheduled for November 12. That gives 13 days for the short interest trend to develop further or reverse. The specific question is whether shares short continue climbing above 160 million, or whether the options positioning proves early, and the call buyers get the better of the trade heading into the print.

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Data summary

• Short interest: 156.4M shares, 4.1% of free float, up 22% in one week
• ORTEX short score: 36.9, up from 33.7 a week ago
• Availability: 1,277% of shares already borrowed (loose market)
• Cost to borrow: 0.46%, down 11% on the week
• Put-call ratio: 0.50, 2.0 standard deviations below 20-day mean
• Mean analyst price target: $18.93, vs close of $12.05
• Retail attention z-score: 2.56 above its own 90-day average
• Next earnings: November 12, 2026