RBC Cuts EFX as Borrow Costs Hit October Lows

Equifax short interest stands at 4.57% of free float as of October 29, with 5.6 million shares short. That position has grown 5.6% over the past week, yet it remains less than two-thirds the size it was in early October, when roughly 7.4 million shares were short ahead of the earnings beat.

RBC Steps Back

The clearest signal this week came from the analyst desk, not the lending market. RBC Capital's Ashish Sabadra downgraded Equifax to Sector Perform from Outperform on October 26. The firm raised its price target to $189 from $177, a $12 increase. Downgrading while lifting the target is an unusual combination. It points to a view that the post-earnings move has absorbed much of the near-term return, rather than to a deteriorating fundamental view.

The broader analyst picture is fractured. Argus upgraded to Buy on October 22. Needham raised its target to $210. Stifel cut its target to $217 from $235, keeping Buy. The consensus target sits at $200.35. Against Thursday's close of $179.39, that gap remains material, but the stock has given back 4.1% over the past week even as the peer group median fell 6.9%.

Borrow Costs Collapse

The lending market is moving in the opposite direction from the short count. Cost to borrow has dropped 61% over the past week to 0.18%, the lowest reading since early October. Availability stands at 7,859% of short interest, meaning roughly 97 million shares are available to lend against the 5.6 million currently borrowed. The borrow market is exceptionally loose. There is no pressure on existing short positions from the lending side.

CEO Sales Logged Under a Trading Plan

CEO Mark Begor filed open-market sales on October 23 totalling roughly 36,500 shares across multiple transactions, executed between $182.52 and $186.73 per share. All transactions were conducted under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan, which limits the signal value of the sales as a discretionary read on management's view. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is negative $7.75 million in value across open-market transactions, also predominantly plan-driven.

Alt Data: Record Buyback Quarter

Equifax's own SEC filings show buyback spend in Q2 2026 reached $300 million, up 135% on the same quarter a year earlier and the largest Q2 buyback on record going back to 2009. That capital allocation decision was made before the post-earnings rally pushed the stock above $179. Retail attention, measured by Wikipedia views and ORTEX page traffic, reached 2.7 standard deviations above Equifax's own 90-day average as of October 21, a sharp but transitory spike driven by the earnings print.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 4.57% of free float, 5.6 million shares, up 5.6% over the week
• Cost to borrow: 0.18%, down 61% over the week, at October lows
• Availability: 7,859% of short interest, 97 million shares available to lend
• RBC: downgraded to Sector Perform, target raised to $189 from $177
• Consensus target: $200.35; stock closed October 29 at $179.39, down 4.1% on the week
• CEO Begor: sold approximately 36,500 shares on October 23 under a 10b5-1 plan
• Buybacks: $300 million in Q2 2026, up 135% year-on-year, largest Q2 on record since 2009