US Hybrid Retreat Meets a Divided European Labour Market

The EV picture is more complex than the headlines suggest

US vehicle registration data tracked by ORTEX tells a nuanced story about the electric transition. The stock of registered non-plug hybrid vehicles fell to 14,476 in August 2026, according to state fuel-mix filings. That is the lowest reading since the series began in 2015, down from a prior extreme of 16,049. Conventional hybrids are losing ground.

At the same time, new electric vehicle first-registrations fell 29% year-on-year in August 2026, dropping to 6,635 from 9,347 in August 2025, the same dataset shows. That monthly flow reading is a sharp reversal. Yet the broader plug-in fleet, combining battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, still grew 27% over the same twelve months, reaching 511,558 registered vehicles. The shift from non-plug hybrids to fully electrified drivetrains appears to be continuing, even as the monthly pace of new registrations slowed.

Europe's labour markets diverge

Away from vehicle data, European unemployment figures pulled in opposite directions in September 2026. Spain's jobless rate fell to 10.3%, the lowest September reading in 18 years, nudging below the prior September best of 10.4% set in 2025. Poland moved the other way: its unemployment rate rose to 3.4%, the highest September reading in seven years, clearing the prior September peak of 3.3% set in September 2020. Both readings come from EU macro filings tracked by ORTEX.

What vehicle registers point to for upcoming results

Several automotive groups report within the next week, and ORTEX's measured leading indicators, drawn from national car registration data, point in different directions.

Dutch car registrations, which ORTEX has measured to lead PSNY revenue by 60 days with a strong fit, are running 37% below the same quarter last year, with all three months of the quarter now in. A separate German cars series, also a strong-fit lead for Polestar by 50 days, is running 32% ahead. The signals are pulling against each other heading into the 5 November report.

For HMC Honda Motor, Japanese car registrations, a strong-fit lead for revenue by 65 days, are running 10% below the same quarter last year, with three months fully in ahead of the 6 November report.

7261 Mazda Motor's Dutch registrations, a moderate-fit lead by 35 days, are running 126% above the same quarter last year, while German registrations, a strong-fit lead by 30 days, are up 32%, with three of three months in ahead of 6 November. These are where the data points so far, not a forecast of the reported figures.