Exelixis Shorts Ease as Analysts Rush to Raise Targets

EXEL is the busier story in its peer group this week, not because short positioning is tightening, but because the opposite is happening. Short interest runs at 10.3% of free float, well above the likes of INCY and AMGN, which carry far lighter short loads. Yet that elevated position has been slowly unwinding: short interest fell 4.1% over the past month and is down fractionally this week. Borrow conditions reinforce the picture. Availability at over 1,000% means shares are plentiful in the lending pool, and the cost to borrow has dropped to 0.33%, its lowest level in six weeks. The put/call ratio at 1.09 sits below its 20-day average of 1.22, a notable shift from September when it touched 1.89. The stock itself is up 7.5% over the past week to $69.39, outrunning a peer median of roughly 4.9%.

The analyst community scrambled to catch up on Friday, the day before the November 3 print. TD Cowen raised its target from $55 to $76 while holding its Buy rating. Morgan Stanley moved from $53 to $60. RBC Capital, Truist Securities, and Barclays all lifted targets too, keeping neutral or hold ratings in place. The target raises are large enough to suggest analysts were running behind the stock rather than leading it: the consensus mean price target, at $57.64, now sits well below the current $69.39, meaning the Street's formal numbers have not kept pace with the move. The core disagreement is clear. Those constructive on the stock point to the Cabometyx franchise generating cash while zanzalintinib advances across seven registrational programs, with colorectal cancer approval potentially in early 2027 and a $2.5 billion revenue projection by 2035. The sceptical case is that the stock, up 51% year to date, already prices in much of the pipeline optionality, a patent cliff still arrives in 2030, and competitive pressure in renal cell carcinoma could cap how far zanza actually penetrates.

Ownership adds a layer of complexity the price action alone does not reveal. Two Schedule 13D filings sit on the register, flagging activist intent. Dapice Joshua J. filed a 13D/A in January 2026, disclosing a 5.9% stake trimmed from 6.8% previously. Farallon Capital Management filed its first 13D in August 2026 at 5.6%. As-last-disclosed positions are the nature of 13D/G reporting: holders dropping below 5% are not required to file again, so actual current stakes may differ. BlackRock holds over 11% on a passive 13G basis. State Street and LSV both added meaningfully in the most recent quarter. The net insider picture over the past 90 days shows modest selling of roughly $7 million, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans and at lower prices than today, limiting the informational weight.

From the company's own data, Medicaid reimbursements for Cabometyx have risen for four consecutive quarters in dollars and three in units, a streak through the period ending January 2026. Buyback spend in Q2 2026 came in at $430 million, up 52% on the same quarter a year earlier and the largest Q2 for repurchases on record since 2023. Neither dataset carries a measured lead against reported financials, so neither points to the Q3 print directly. They do confirm the cash generation story that underpins the constructive analyst case.

Monday's result will test whether Cabometyx growth is holding pace and whether zanza's trial cadence is advancing on the schedule that justifies a stock now trading above every analyst's published price target.