US Hybrid Fleet Hits Eleven-Year Low as EV First-Regs Slump

The headline number from the ORTEX US state fuel-mix registers is stark. The stock of non-plug hybrid vehicles fell to 14,476 in August 2026. That is the lowest reading since the series began in 2015, down from a prior extreme of 16,049. At the same time, new electric vehicle registrations in August 2026 came in at 6,635, a 29% drop on the 9,347 recorded in August 2025.

A Split Picture in the US Fleet

The conventional hybrid is fading fast. Yet the overall plug-in story looks different. According to the ORTEX US state EV fleet register, the combined stock of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 511,558 in August 2026. That is up 27% on the 401,455 recorded a year earlier. The monthly flow of new registrations is falling sharply while the accumulated stock still grows. These are two separate trends sitting inside the same market.

Labour Markets Send Mixed Signals from Europe

EU macro data tracked by ORTEX shows Spain's unemployment rate fell to 10.3% in September 2026. That is the lowest September reading in 18 years, edging below the prior September best of 10.4% set in 2025. Poland tells the opposite story. Its unemployment rate rose to 3.4% in September 2026, the highest September reading in seven years, above the prior September peak of 3.3% set in September 2020. One labour market tightening to an 18-year record low, another loosening to a seven-year high: European consumer spending conditions are diverging sharply by country.

What the Registers Say Ahead of Earnings

Several automakers report within the next seven days, and the ORTEX vehicle-registration data has been measured out-of-sample to lead their revenues.

PSNY reports 5 November. Dutch car registrations, which have a strong measured fit and lead PSNY revenue by 60 days, are running minus 37% on the same quarter last year, with all three months in. German car registrations, also a strong-fit lead by 50 days, are running plus 32% on the same quarter. The two signals point in opposite directions with full-quarter coverage.

RACE reports 3 November. Austrian car registrations lead Ferrari revenue by 22 days (weak fit) and are running minus 75% on the same quarter last year, with three of three months in. RNO reports 5 November. Austrian registrations (moderate fit, 32-day lead) are running plus 6%, while Dutch registrations (moderate fit, 43-day lead) are running minus 19%, again with full-quarter data in.

HMC reports 6 November. Japanese car registrations, a strong-fit leading indicator with a 65-day lead, are running minus 10% on the same quarter last year, three months in.