Auto Credit Stress Puts Options in the Spotlight

Bears are active in the options market as Halloween closes out October. Two themes are driving unusual positioning: auto-loan stress and an EV sector under growing short pressure.

Carvana sits at the centre of the credit concern. ORTEX Alt Data shows delinquencies in Carvana's ABS trusts ran 4.6 standard deviations above their own history as of 15 October, the largest outlier reading in the consumer credit dataset. Banco Santander ABS trust delinquencies are a further signal, running 3.3 standard deviations above their own history over the same period. CVNA carries a short score of 56 and 6.3 days to cover. Options expiries cluster through November and into January, with the next key date on 6 November.

EV names are drawing fresh attention too. First-time electric vehicle registrations dropped 29% year on year in August, falling from 9,347 to 6,635 units. That real-economy softness is showing up in positioning. Lucid Group and Polestar both carry active November put chains. Honda Motor reports 6 November, where Japanese car registrations, a leading indicator for its revenue, are running 10% below the same quarter last year.

Moderna is drawing calls from a different angle. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar puts the stock at an 88% probability of MSCI World addition, with a forecast $5.9 billion of forced buying equivalent to 1.2 days of normal volume. The announcement is expected 11 November. Moderna's YTD gain stands at 652% and analysts sit 38% below the current price. November expiry options are active across the board.