Auto-Loan Stress and EV Crosscurrents Dominate October Data

Credit Strain at the Wheel

The sharpest signal in ORTEX's consumer credit dataset comes from the ABS trust filings it tracks through US regulators. As of 15 October, delinquencies in CVNA's asset-backed securities trusts were 4.6 standard deviations above their own history. That is the largest outlier reading in the entire consumer credit dataset. SAN showed a second stress signal in the same window. Delinquencies in Banco Santander's ABS trusts were 3.3 standard deviations above their own history over the same period. Two major auto-loan pools, each at multi-sigma highs, pointing in the same direction at the same time.

A Split Picture on Electric Vehicles

US state vehicle registration data tells a more complicated EV story. First-time electric vehicle registrations fell 29% year on year in August, dropping from 9,347 to 6,635 units, according to the US state fuel mix register. At the same time, the total plug-in fleet, which combines battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, rose 27% year on year in August to 511,558 vehicles. The stock of registered non-plug hybrid vehicles fell to its lowest reading since the series began in 2015, at 14,476 vehicles. Monthly flow is shrinking. The installed base is still growing. The transition is running on momentum from accumulated past purchases rather than fresh demand.

What Registration Counts Say Ahead of Earnings

Several automakers report next week, and ORTEX has measured certain European and Asian registration datasets to lead their revenues out of sample.

PSNY reports on 5 November. Dutch car registrations, which carry a strong fit and lead Polestar revenue by 60 days, are running -37% on the same quarter last year with all three months of the quarter in. German car registrations, also a strong-fit lead with a 50-day lag, are running +32% on the same quarter last year. The two signals pull in opposite directions.

Mazda reports on 6 November. German car registrations, a strong-fit lead with a 30-day lag, are running +32% year on year for the quarter. Dutch registrations, a moderate-fit lead, are running +126% year on year.

HMC reports the same day. Japanese car registrations carry a strong fit and lead Honda's revenue by 65 days. They are running -10% on the same quarter last year, with all three months in.

RACE reports on 3 November. Austrian car registrations lead Ferrari revenue by 22 days, a weak fit. They are running -75% on the same quarter last year, with all three months in.

Every reading above is where the data points so far for the quarter, with three months in. None is a forecast of the reported figure.