AVY Short Positions Jump 15% in a Week After Earnings

Avery Dennison added just 0.2% over the past week to $182.22, a notable lag against the median 2.9% gain among its closest packaging peers, while short sellers rebuilt positions at the fastest weekly pace in recent memory.

Short interest climbed nearly 15% week-on-week, rising from roughly 1.93 million shares to 2.22 million. That move is 1.6 standard deviations above the stock's typical weekly short-interest change over the past year. The current level represents 2.9% of the free float, still low in absolute terms, but the pace of the rebuild is the more striking feature given that short interest had been falling for most of October before this week's reversal. Notably, the stock reported Q3 results on October 29 and rose just 0.8% on the day, a much cooler reaction than the 3.7% gain that followed the October 21 print referenced in the prior note.

The borrow market itself remains extraordinarily loose, keeping the short rebuild in perspective. Availability is effectively uncapped: with more than 75 million shares free to lend against 2.2 million borrowed, there is no friction in adding short exposure. Borrowing costs have risen 13% week-on-week to 0.44%, the highest level in about a month, but remain far below any threshold that would deter a new position. JP Morgan's Jeffrey Zekauskas raised his price target to $200 from $190 on October 30, maintaining an Overweight rating, a move that came on the same day as the results. That puts the consensus mean target at $202.70, roughly 11% above where the stock closed. The put/call ratio at 0.39 is a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.43, meaning options traders are leaning toward calls rather than puts, the opposite direction from the short rebuild.

The Street broadly supports the name. The forward earnings yield factor ranks in the 71st percentile, and 12-month forward EPS growth ranks in the 87th percentile. The PE multiple has expanded about one turn over the past 30 days to roughly 16.6x, consistent with a stock that beat estimates and received target upgrades. The ORTEX short score of 33.1 has ticked up from 31.8 a week ago, a direction change that mirrors the short-interest move, though the absolute level remains benign. Peers had a stronger week: IP gained 9.6%, ATR rose 8.4%, and PKG added 3.9%, all outpacing AVY by a wide margin.

Wikipedia page traffic offers one additional data point. Retail attention for Avery Dennison is running at a z-score of 2.2 against its own 90-day history, the highest it has been in the period covered, consistent with the earnings release drawing unusual interest to the stock. The next earnings event is not due until February 3, 2027, so the focus from here shifts to whether short sellers who rebuilt positions this week continue to add, and whether the gap between the stock price and the analyst consensus target narrows from the demand side or the price-target side.