Enbridge Heads Into Q3 Results With Shorts Largely Out of the Picture

Enbridge goes into its November 2 Q3 earnings print with short sellers already well clear of the stock and the borrow market offering no signal of renewed bearish conviction.

Short interest has dropped roughly 24% over the past month to 29.9 million shares, representing just 1.4% of the free float. That is a genuinely low level for a company of this size. The two-step retreat, from around 39 million shares in late September to 31.6 million in early October, then to the current level from October 20, points to a deliberate exit rather than a forced one. Availability is extremely loose at 841%, meaning there are roughly eight shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow is 0.69%, essentially negligible. A brief spike to 7.6% on October 12 has fully unwound. Taken together, the lending market is signalling no meaningful short-side pressure heading into the print.

The stock's own trajectory backs that up. Enbridge closed at CAD 69.11, up 2.6% on the week and 4.4% over the past month. Close peers tracked a narrower range: TC Energy gained 3.3% on the week, Pembina Pipeline added 1.8%, and US midstream names Kinder Morgan and ONEOK moved in opposite directions, down 1.6% and up 1.3% respectively. Enbridge's outperformance against the midstream peer group reflects both the short covering tailwind and the defensive appeal of its fee-based model ahead of results.

The Street carries a mean price target of CAD 78.25 against Friday's close of 69.11, implying roughly 13% to the consensus. The dividend score ranks in the 85th percentile of the universe, consistent with Enbridge's long-standing positioning as an income name. EV/EBITDA has drifted up about 0.16x over the past 30 days to 12.2x, a modest re-rating as the shares have moved higher. The ORTEX short score is 33.7, stable and low, pointing to no particular concern from a quantitative short-side perspective. One caveat from the recent prior note: EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 were revised down due to rising depreciation costs, and the debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 4.9x remains above the company's own 4.5x to 5.0x target. Those factors give the Street reason to keep expectations measured even as sentiment on the shares has improved.

The Q3 earnings history on record shows the stock fell 3.3% on the day after its most recent print and shed a further 4.6 percentage points over the following five sessions, a pattern worth keeping in mind even as the pre-results setup looks more constructive than it did a month ago.

November 2 is therefore the next focal point: the question is whether improved short-side sentiment and a 13% gap to the Street's price target survive contact with the actual Q3 numbers and any updated guidance on the deleveraging path.