PGY Shorts Rebuild as Analysts Lift Targets

Pagaya Technologies enters the final stretch before its November 6 earnings report with a notable tension at its core: short sellers have added to positions over the past month while the analysts covering the stock have, almost uniformly, been raising their price targets this week.

Short interest is the primary story here. At 16.1% of free float, it is meaningfully elevated and has climbed roughly 7% over the past week, reaching approximately 11.1 million shares as of October 29. The monthly build is similar in magnitude, around 7% over 30 days, meaning this is not a one-session repositioning but a sustained accumulation of bearish bets. Days to cover, per the most recent FINRA fortnightly figure, stand at 4.94. The ORTEX short score is 69.1, placing Pagaya in the bottom tier of the universe on this metric and ranking in the 6th percentile on short score among peers.

The borrow market tells a less alarming story. Availability has actually loosened considerably over the past week, rising to 142% from roughly 111% seven days ago. That means for every share currently borrowed, another 1.4 shares remain available in the lending pool, well above the 37.4% trough that marked the tightest point of the past year. The cost to borrow has dropped sharply too, falling 14% over the week to just 0.47%. In September, it briefly spiked above 3% before collapsing back. The current setup is elevated short interest but a relaxed borrow market, suggesting the existing shorts are not under meaningful squeeze pressure.

Options positioning cuts against the bearish lean in short interest. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.36, about 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.41. That is close to the lowest reading of the past year, which bottomed at 0.25. Call volume is outpacing puts by a wide margin, a sign that at least part of the market is positioning for upside into the November 6 print.

Two analyst actions on October 30 reinforce that skew. TD Cowen raised its price target to $27 from $25 while maintaining a Buy rating. B. Riley Securities lifted its target to $38 from $36, also reiterating Buy. The consensus target across the covering analysts averages around $28.80, implying roughly 50% upside from the $19.23 close on October 30. The stock trades on a PE of around 5.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.9, metrics that rank in the 96th and 99th percentile on earnings yield and EV/EBIT respectively within the ORTEX universe. On paper, the valuation is historically cheap for a company with Pagaya's revenue growth profile.

The ownership picture has one item worth flagging. The 13D register carries two activist-flagged holders: GIC Private Ltd, which has cut its stake from 6.58% to 0.61% per its July 2025 amendment, and Ann H. Lamont, who filed a 13D in September 2025 disclosing a 6.0% position. These disclosures are as of last filing and, as required by SEC rules, holders dropping below 5% may exit without further notice. The insider register shows net selling of roughly $2.2 million over the past 90 days, though a portion of the recent activity involves option exercises and routine disposals from the CFO, Chief Accounting Officer and President on September 28, rather than large discretionary sales. Retail attention, measured by Wikipedia page views, is running at a z-score of 2.0 against Pagaya's own 90-day history, which is the highest it has been in recent weeks.

The prior earnings print, on October 29, saw the stock fall just over 6% the following day. The August print produced a similar drop of 5.8%, though the stock recovered to a positive 1.2% over the five days that followed. With the next report due November 6, the most important variable is not the absolute revenue figure but whether network volume, which declined 3.5% sequentially in the last quarter, shows signs of stabilising.