HMC Capital Bears Retreat as November Earnings Approach

HMC Capital closed the week at AUD 3.00, up 12.4% in five sessions, with short sellers cutting positions into the rally and a results date of November 18 drawing closer.

The lending market tells a straightforward story: bears are stepping back, not pressing. Short interest eased to 4.55% of free float by October 29, down roughly 2.4% on the week, though it remains about 7% above where it stood a month ago. Cost to borrow has dropped sharply from around 1.8% to 0.69%, its lowest reading in more than six weeks, suggesting lenders face little demand pressure. Availability is generous at 148% of current short interest, meaning there are roughly one and a half shares available to borrow for every share already borrowed. The 52-week low for availability was 60%, so the lending pool is far from constrained. The ORTEX short score of 71 is elevated and places HMC in the bottom few percentiles for short interest rank across the universe, but the week's direction in the borrow market points toward position reduction rather than fresh conviction.

Analyst coverage is sparse and the consensus is a hold, with a mean price target of AUD 3.76 against a current price of AUD 3.00. That implies roughly 25% upside on paper, though with only five analysts on hold and no recent rating changes the Street appears content to wait for the November print before reassessing. Valuation looks undemanding: the price-to-book sits at 0.65 and the PE at 8.5x, both below typical sector peers. The EV/EBITDA of 8.0x has drifted slightly lower over the past month. The 90-day EPS momentum factor ranks in the 97th percentile, a standout in an otherwise mixed scorecard where near-term EPS momentum (30-day, 20th percentile) and EPS surprise (19th percentile) look considerably weaker.

Ownership is concentrated at the top. Home Investment Consortium Trust holds 13.5% and its associated entity Home Investment Consortium Company Pty Ltd holds a further 5.8%, together accounting for nearly a fifth of shares outstanding. JPMorgan Chase holds 5.0% as last reported in April, and State Street added a small position through September. Insider activity in the visible record consists entirely of unpriced director share plan exercises in August and February, which carry no read on conviction. Net insider buying over the past 90 days is zero.

The earnings history is the sharpest data point in the snapshot. The August 2026 result produced a one-day move of 15.4% and a five-day move of 7.2%, and a nearly simultaneous announcement from the same day recorded an 11.6% one-day gain and 9.6% over five days. The one prior result in the history moved 2.7% lower on the day before recovering 11.3% over the following week. That is a stock with a demonstrated tendency to gap sharply on results days.

With the November 18 date now less than three weeks away, the setup to watch is whether short interest, which has held above its September baseline despite recent trimming, continues to ease or stabilises into the print.