BSAC Shorts Hit One-Year High Before Tuesday's Print

BSAC short sellers have pushed their position to its highest level in at least a year, with shares short climbing 27% over the past week to roughly 1.05 million, a move running well above the stock's typical weekly shift.

That build has arrived against a backdrop of meaningful price weakness. The stock closed at $30.53 on October 30, down 3% on the day and off 9% over the past month. Short interest has risen 39% over the same 30-day stretch, accelerating as the stock has fallen. The official FINRA fortnightly figure put short interest at 930,000 shares as of October 15, with days to cover at 1.9, the daily estimate has climbed further since then.

The borrow market has not made life difficult for short sellers. Availability has tightened somewhat, dropping 12% on the week to 518% of short interest, but that still means roughly five shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. Cost to borrow has edged up 6% on the week to 0.49%, but remains very low in absolute terms. There is no friction preventing new shorts from being established, which explains how the position has built so freely. The ORTEX short score has drifted higher over the past two weeks, reaching 36.1 on October 29, though it remains in moderate territory.

Analyst opinion going into the print is divided. JP Morgan cut its price target to $39 from $43 in early October while keeping an Overweight rating, a sign of trimmed conviction rather than a change of view. Goldman Sachs carries a Sell, with a $33 target. Citi upgraded to Buy earlier in the year, and UBS holds Neutral at $31. The mean target of $34.95 sits about 14% above the current price, but the range from $31 to $39 reflects genuine disagreement about the trajectory. The stock's price-to-book multiple has eased to 2.24, down roughly 0.13 over the past 30 days, compressing alongside the share price decline.

The November 4 print will test whether the bank's underlying earnings momentum justifies the stock's recent premium over its regional peers, or whether the short sellers who have been adding through October have a point about the pace of deterioration.