Paycom Short Interest Climbs 21% in a Month, Targets Race Higher

PAYC enters its November 4 earnings report with short sellers having built positions steadily over the past month, even as analysts scramble in the opposite direction.

Short interest has risen 21% over the past 30 days to 4.8% of the free float, roughly 2.6 million shares. The move is measured rather than aggressive: borrow conditions remain extremely loose, with availability at 2,510%, meaning there are around 25 shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow has fallen to 0.30%, down from its October peak near 0.59%. The lending market offers no amplification to whatever bearish thesis the short buildup reflects.

The analyst community has moved decisively in the other direction. Seven firms raised price targets in the past two weeks, with moves well above the stock's current price of $264.20. Jefferies went from $160 to $300, BTIG from $230 to $305, and Cantor Fitzgerald from $195 to $285. Most maintained neutral or hold ratings even while marking targets sharply higher, a pattern that suggests the Street sees the stock as fairly valued at elevated levels rather than compelling enough to upgrade. The bull case rests on durable subscription revenue, free cash flow heading toward $650 million in 2026, and automation-led margin expansion. The bear case centres on competitive pressure from Paylocity and Paycor, a fragmented midmarket that can force pricing concessions, and macro sensitivity if IT budgets tighten.

One name worth noting on the ownership register is CEO Chad Richison, who filed a Schedule 13D/A in September disclosing a stake that rose from 10.5% to 13.1% of the company's shares. A 13D filing signals active intent rather than passive holding. Richison already held the largest disclosed position on the register at 5.9 million shares, and the increase is a material addition. As always with 13D/G disclosures, stakes are as last reported around the 5% threshold, and positions can change without a further filing.

The stock gained 1.4% on Friday to close at $264.20, recovering some of a 3.8% weekly decline that mirrored the broader drift in HCM peers. The mean analyst price target of $252 now sits below the current price, though the cluster of recent raises is pulling that figure upward. The print on November 4 will test whether the company's Q3 execution on revenue growth and margins can justify the gap that has opened between where the stock trades and where most rating changes stopped short of endorsing.