SSMR Shorts Build as Stock Slides 17% in a Month

SSMR heads into its November 12 earnings print with short sellers rebuilding positions aggressively, the stock down sharply, and options traders positioned almost entirely on the call side, a combination that makes the upcoming print the clearest near-term test for the name.

The short-side story is the dominant theme right now. Short interest has climbed 58% over the past month, reaching roughly 4.27 million shares, and rose nearly 25% in the past week alone. That pace of accumulation is notable for a stock with a market cap just under $1.8 billion. Borrow availability has tightened meaningfully in parallel, falling from above 200% in early October to 74% as of October 29, the lowest reading of the past year. That means the pool of lendable shares is shrinking relative to what is already borrowed, even as shorts add. Cost to borrow remains modest at just over 3%, having eased from above 9% in late September, so borrowing is not yet punitive, but the tightening availability trend is worth watching. The ORTEX short score stands at 77.9, elevated and rising through October, reflecting the combined weight of these signals.

Options positioning tells a very different story, and the contrast is striking. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.027, effectively the floor of its 52-week range, against a 20-day average near 0.49. That is the most call-skewed options market SSMR has seen all year. With the 52-week low on the PCR sitting at 0.0, this is essentially as bullish as options flow gets. Short sellers are piling in, while options buyers are overwhelmingly betting on a recovery. That divergence rarely resolves quietly.

The analyst community is broadly constructive but has been trimming its ambitions. Morgan Stanley, the most prominent name on the register, cut its price target to $20 from $23 in early October while holding its Overweight rating. RBC and Scotiabank have both maintained positive ratings, and Canaccord initiated at Speculative Buy with a $20 target in August. The consensus target of around $19 implies roughly 56% upside to the current price of $12.28, which closed down 7.3% on October 30 and is off 17.6% over the past month. The price-to-book multiple has compressed to 6.7x, down more than 1.5 points over 30 days, tracking the price decline. The company is pre-earnings profitability, so traditional earnings multiples are negative and carry little signal here.

The ownership structure is unusual and worth flagging. Thomas Scott Kaplan, disclosed as holding approximately 62.9% of the class via a Schedule 13G filed in August, is the dominant force in the register. Ospraie Real Assets Fund, a second Schedule 13G filer, holds around 17.3%. Together, these two passive-disclosed holders account for roughly 80% of shares outstanding. That structural concentration means the effective free float is tight, which amplifies the significance of the short interest build. No 13D activist is on the register, and no holder has declared activist intent. Stakes are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold, and a holder can fall below 5% without filing again.

One additional data point: Wikipedia page views for SSMR have registered a z-score of 5.8 against its own 90-day history, pointing to a sharp spike in retail attention around the stock's recent sell-off.

With earnings due November 12, the question is whether the call-heavy options positioning or the rising short interest turns out to be the better read on the print.