NOV Shorts Hold Firm After Earnings Miss

NOV has given back its pre-earnings rally, falling 2.4% on the week to $19.29, and the short sellers who held through the Q3 print are looking vindicated: the stock dropped roughly 5.8% on the session following results.

Short interest has continued to build even after earnings, reaching 7.6% of the free float on 27.9 million shares, up 5% on the week and nearly 10% over the past month. The monthly accumulation is the most sustained short-building seen in the recent data window, and the position remains at its largest recent level despite the stock having pulled back from its pre-earnings peak of around $20.55. What the bears do not face is any pressure from the lending market. Availability is running at approximately 1,568%, meaning the pool of shares available to borrow dwarfs the current short book by a factor of roughly sixteen to one. Cost to borrow has edged up 10% on the week to 0.45%, but that remains a negligible carry cost. With the 52-week availability low sitting at 375%, conditions in the lending market have not tightened at any point this year in a way that would concern shorts. Options traders remain equally unconcerned about downside protection: the put/call ratio is 0.065, essentially flat against its 20-day average of 0.064 and near the lower end of the 52-week range of 0.045 to 0.30. Call volume still dominates.

The Street is cautiously positioned and has moved in different directions post-results. Barclays, which carries an Underweight rating, lifted its target one dollar to $21 in the wake of the print, a marginal concession while keeping the bearish stance. Citigroup trimmed its target to $21 in late September, also at Neutral. The mean analyst target across the coverage universe is $22.16, implying about 15% upside from current levels, but that figure is anchored by more bullish voices. TD Cowen holds a Buy at $26, and Susquehanna is Positive with a $24 target, both last updated in July after the Q2 print. The EV/EBITDA multiple has contracted around seven times on a trailing basis, a discount to large-cap oilfield services peers that the bull case frames as an opportunity. The bear case is harder to dismiss in the near term: Q2 guidance called for Energy Products and Services EBITDA down 24% year-on-year, with group revenue off 6-8%, and the Q3 earnings reaction of minus 5.8% suggests the print did not resolve those concerns. The ORTEX short score of 53 places NOV in roughly the middle of the universe, consistent with a position that is elevated but not extreme.

Institutional ownership tells a story of patient holders rather than momentum buyers. BlackRock is the largest declared position at 10.6% of shares, with Pzena Investment Management and First Eagle each holding above 8%. First Eagle trimmed its stake from 10% to 8.6% in its most recent 13G/A filing in August, while Hotchkis and Wiley more than halved its position from 8.9% to around 4.1% between February and May, a notable reduction from a value-oriented manager that had been a long-term holder. These are passive or value-oriented names for the most part, meaning forced selling is unlikely, but the Hotchkis reduction is a reminder that value patience has limits when near-term earnings visibility deteriorates. No 13D activist is on the register.

Among close peers, HAL gained 3.6% on the week and WFRD added 4.4%, while NBR jumped 12%. NOV's 2.4% decline leaves it as one of the weaker performers in the group, underlining the stock-specific overhang from its earnings reaction rather than a broader sector move. SLB was broadly flat, up just 1.3%.

The next scheduled earnings event is in early February 2027. Between now and then, the key question is whether the short book, which has been steadily built over October, begins to unwind as the post-earnings price adjustment is absorbed, or whether guidance commentary on Q4 and 2027 gives shorts fresh reason to stay.