Chips Rout, Auto Earnings, and an Italian M&A Clock

Tech Takes the Hit

The dominant story today is semiconductors. Alphabet admitted its "AI mode" hurt traditional search, with sales and profits missing expectations. Its shares fell sharply, dragging NVDA, AMD, and MU lower. Options bears have been active across all three names, with heavy put buying in November expiries. NVDA's RSI sits at just 35. Short sellers are adding to chip positions too: Cerebras Systems saw SI % of free float jump 5.2 points to 20.1% in the past week. Wolfspeed remains the most heavily shorted large-cap name at 88.6% SI % FF, with shares to borrow near zero. The FT reports US tech stocks tumbled as AI spending concerns intensified, with Anthropic reportedly set for a junk rating ahead of its IPO.

Autos Face a Data Wall

A heavy week of automotive earnings begins tomorrow. Ferrari reports Tuesday. Austrian car registrations, which ORTEX Alt Data measures as a leading indicator for Ferrari revenue with a 22-day lead, are running 75% below the same quarter last year, with all three months of the quarter in. Polestar reports Wednesday against sharply conflicting signals: Dutch registrations are down 37%, while German data points 32% higher. Honda Motor reports Thursday, where Japanese car sales are running 10% below the prior-year quarter, a strong-fit leading series.

European M&A: Time Running Out

CVC Capital Partners' cash tender for Italian pharma group Recordati opens its completion window today through 31 December. ORTEX Index Rebalance Radar puts completion probability at 82% and forecasts a 65% chance of deletion from the FTSE MIB, which would force $218M of selling across 11.2 days of volume. An index announcement could come as soon as 6 November.

Index Radar

Xero sits just 2.3% above its MSCI World exit line, with the 11 November announcement seven sessions away. At 52% probability, it is the closest call on the board. Flutter Entertainment faces 65% deletion odds with $710M of forced selling implied.