Simon Property Group: Shorts Drift Higher Before Q3 Results

SPG heads into its November 5 earnings report with short sellers holding a modest but quietly growing position, while the stock itself has outpaced its retail REIT peers over the past week.

Short interest in Simon Property Group has edged up roughly 1.5% over the past week to reach 2.9% of the free float, equivalent to around 9.5 million shares. That remains a low absolute level, but the direction has been consistently higher since mid-October, with the position building across eight of the last ten sessions. The borrow market is not under pressure: availability is extremely loose at 5,752%, meaning shares are plentiful relative to what short sellers have already borrowed, and borrowing costs are negligible at 0.39% annually. There is no squeeze dynamic at play here.

The stock itself has been moving in the opposite direction to the short sellers. SPG gained 2.9% in the past week to close at $217.75, well above the median weekly move of 0.9% for its closest peers. KIM added 3.8% over the same period, BRX gained 3.6%, while MAC, REG, and SKT all lagged, rising less than 1%. The relative strength has lifted SPG back toward the analyst consensus mean target of $228.89, closing much of the gap that had opened in September.

Analyst opinion heading into the print is cautious rather than hostile. Multiple firms cut price targets in late September and early October, with Piper Sandler trimming from $285 to $254 on October 12 while keeping an Overweight rating, and UBS lowering its target to $205 from $222 while remaining Neutral. Barclays and Evercore ISI also shaved targets through September. The common thread is target reductions without rating downgrades, a pattern that reflects measured concern about tariff exposure and retail sector disruption rather than any fundamental breakdown in the business. Bulls point to Simon's sales-per-square-foot growth, improving occupancy, and limited new supply in premium mall real estate. Bears focus on the fallout from credit events at major tenants including Saks and Eddie Bauer, and on a valuation that, at a price-to-book above 20x, leaves little margin for disappointment.

The options market is broadly neutral. The put/call ratio of 1.21 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average, with a z-score near zero, leaving no obvious tilt toward either protection or speculation ahead of the release. The print will test whether Simon's premium-asset portfolio and occupancy trajectory can justify a stock that has outrun most of its peer group over the past month.