ArcelorMittal's Short Interest Jumps Before Q3 Results

ArcelorMittal reports third-quarter earnings on 5 November, and the approach has been marked by a sharp repositioning in the lending market. Short interest jumped 77% over the past week to roughly 1.38 million shares, a move the ORTEX editorial team notes is 2.9 standard deviations above the company's typical weekly shift over the past year. That is an unusually abrupt build for a $45 billion steelmaker whose shares have already fallen 12% over the past month, closing Friday at $59.81. The lending market remains loose despite the pickup: availability is running at 302%, meaning there are three shares available to borrow for every one already lent out, well above the 52-week low of 37%, and the cost to borrow is a modest 0.82%. The short interest spike looks more like a tactical pre-earnings hedge than the start of a sustained structural short.

The analyst backdrop heading into the print is mixed. UBS upgraded the stock to Buy on 9 October, the most recent directional move from a major firm. Wells Fargo trimmed its target from $69 to $64 on 6 October while holding its Equal-Weight rating, suggesting the Street is not convinced the recent selloff has reset expectations enough. Morgan Stanley had initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and an $82 target back in August, far above where the shares now trade. JP Morgan upgraded to Neutral in July after cutting to Underweight in March, a round trip that captures the uncertainty in the steel cycle well. Valuation provides some support at current levels: the stock trades at 0.75 times book and 9.1 times trailing earnings, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.4 that has compressed by about 0.12 turns over the past month. The analyst recommendation divergence score ranks in the 98th percentile of the ORTEX universe, reflecting genuinely divided opinion rather than a consensus view.

The ownership picture adds one notable detail. Grandel Pte Limited, the Mittal family vehicle, holds 45% of shares and reported no change in its position as of March 2026. Among institutional investors, Capital Research and Management added nearly 4 million shares through September, the largest incremental buy among the top holders. BlackRock and FMR also added modestly. The pattern suggests passive and value-oriented money has been absorbing shares as the price fell, with no sign of major institutional liquidation ahead of the print.

The Q3 release will test whether the company's cost and volume story can offset the pressure from softer steel prices and weaker European demand that has weighed on the shares through October.