SpaceX Q3 Print Arrives With Shorts in Retreat and a $257 Analyst Target Gap

SPCX reports its next set of results on November 5, with the stock at $134.72 after falling nearly 9% over the past week and 10% over the past month, the sharpest pullback since the volatile post-debt-announcement sessions in late October.

The lending market tells a story of bears standing down. Short interest has fallen 11% over the past week and 16% over the past month, now at roughly 157 million shares. Borrow costs rose to 0.58% on October 29, up 15% on the week, but remain low in absolute terms. Availability has loosened considerably: three shares are now available to borrow for every one already lent out, a ratio that has expanded from around 148% in late September. The ORTEX short score has dropped from above 50 for most of October to 42.6, its lowest recent reading. Options positioning is the one signal pointing the other way. The put/call ratio at 0.94 is still running about 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.98, meaning calls are dominating the order flow. That is a more bullish tilt than the past month's average, even as the stock has sold off.

The analyst community went into the print with an unusual degree of conviction. A cluster of raises landed on October 21, right after the Q3 figures were shared with the Street. B of A lifted its target from $235 to $275. Wells Fargo moved from $214 to $274. JP Morgan's Doug Anmuth made the most striking call: a target of $500, up from $240, the single largest absolute raise in the visible history for this name. The consensus mean now sits at $257, against a share price of $134.72, a gap of more than 90%. That disconnect has been the defining feature of SPCX for months, and the earnings report is what periodically forces the market to reckon with it.

The bull case centres on the Super Intelligence segment, which produced Q3 revenue of $7.6 billion and EBITDA of roughly $5 billion. Total company EBITDA hit $8.8 billion in the quarter. Management has guided toward $100 billion in annualised revenue by year-end and flagged the possibility of $500 billion to $1 trillion in annualised run rate by end of 2027, driven by compute leasing demand and rising price per watt. Bears focus on the capital requirements to get there: approximately $475 billion of additional capital required through 2028, a business model that depends on Starship reusability targets being met on schedule, and semiconductor supply constraints that could delay the GPU buildout funded by the $40 billion debt deal confirmed last month.

The two most recent earnings reactions offer a wide range of outcomes. In August 2026, the stock fell 8.3% on the day of results before recovering 16.6% over the following five sessions. The October 20 event produced the opposite shape: a 7.7% gain on the day that faded almost entirely over the following week. The November 5 print will test whether the current analyst enthusiasm, built around a Super Intelligence growth narrative, can find traction with investors who have so far treated each rally as an opportunity to reduce.