India's Two-Wheeler Collapse Leads a Week of Weak Demand Signals

Auto Registrations Flash Warning Lights

India's two-wheeler market recorded its weakest October since 2017 last month. The Society of Automotive Manufacturers' registration data counted just 407,743 new units, down 87% on October last year. That is the sharpest year-on-year drop in the series. The weakness lands directly on M&M (Mahindra and Mahindra), which reports on 5 November. The India registrations dataset has a measured lead on Mahindra's revenue of 38 days with a moderate fit. With one of three months in, the series is running 82% below the same quarter last year.

European car markets are equally subdued. Dutch new passenger-car registrations from the Netherlands' vehicle authority fell to 32,706 in October, the smallest October in 13 years. That reading feeds into several upcoming prints. PSNY (Polestar) reports on 5 November. Dutch car registrations lead Polestar's revenue by 60 days with a strong fit, and with one month in, the series sits 68% below the same quarter last year. German car registrations, also a strong-fit lead for Polestar with 50 days, are running 32% above year-ago levels with all three months complete, pulling in the opposite direction.

RNO (Renault) also reports on 5 November. Austrian car data leads its revenue by 32 days with a moderate fit and is running 6% above last year with three months in. Dutch registrations, a separate moderate-fit lead for Renault, are running 21% lower with one month in. RACE (Ferrari) reports on 3 November. Austrian registrations lead Ferrari's revenue by 22 days, though the fit is weak, and the series is running 75% below the same quarter last year with three months complete.

Japan Bucks the Trend; Europe and Asia Show Stress

Against the automotive gloom, Japan's machine tool sector reported a strong September. Foreign machine tool orders rose 64% year-on-year to JPY 415,613m, according to the Japan Machine Tool Builders' Association. Total orders climbed 60% to JPY 223,205m. That pace stands apart from the demand weakness visible elsewhere.

EU unemployment ticked up to 6.2% in September, Eurostat data show. That is the highest September reading in four years. Dutch car weakness and rising joblessness together sketch a cautious European consumer. Singapore, by contrast, drew 112,538 visitor arrivals from Australia in September, the largest September total since 2008, according to the Singapore Tourism Board. Australian investor housing loans reached AUD 818bn in the same month, the largest September on record since 2019 per Australian Prudential Regulation Authority data, with household deposits rising for three consecutive months.

Prints Ahead

Honda Motor reports on 6 November. Japanese car registrations lead Honda's revenue by 65 days with a strong fit. With three months in, the series is running 10% below the same quarter last year. Mazda, also reporting on 6 November, has German car registrations as a strong-fit lead with 30 days, running 32% above year-ago levels with three months in. Dutch registrations, a moderate-fit lead for Mazda, are 5% lower with one month in. Isuzu Motors, reporting 6 November, is tracked by the India registrations dataset with a 69-day moderate-fit lead. With one month in, that series is running 83% below last year's comparable quarter.