Toyota borrow pool dries up as India sales hit record low

Why this matters: Toyota Motor enters its post-earnings period with two converging signals pointing the same direction. The borrow market has never been tighter this year. At the same time, ORTEX Alt Data shows Indian car registrations hitting their lowest October on record.

Borrow availability at the floor

Among large global automakers, Toyota's lending pool is now among the most depleted. Availability has fallen to 2.67%, meaning only one share remains available to borrow for every 37 already lent out. That is down from 37% just two weeks ago and from above 90% in mid-October.

Short interest has climbed in parallel. Borrowed shares rose 18.9% in the past week to around 1.3 million, and are up 31% over the past month. For a company with a $229 billion market cap, the absolute level remains modest. The rate of change is not. FINRA's fortnightly settlement data, as of October 15, put short shares at 1.18 million with 3.77 days to cover.

Cost to borrow has edged up 42% week-on-week to 1.1%. That remains cheap. But it is moving in the same direction as availability, tightening from the lows of 0.66% seen two weeks ago.

The one level that would change the picture is a recovery in availability back above 30%, the point at which the current squeeze-like configuration would start to unwind.

India: a record in the wrong direction

Separate from the lending dynamics, ORTEX Alt Data (Vahan registry) recorded 5,190 new Toyota car registrations in India in October. Per ORTEX Alt Data, that is the smallest October for new car registrations in India on record since 2017, and down 85% on October last year.

None of the registration datasets covering India have been shown to lead Toyota's reported revenue figures in ORTEX's backtests. The India number is colour on real-world volume, not a read-through to the income statement. Still, the scale of the drop stands apart from other markets in the current quarter. Italian registrations are running 14% below last year with one of three months in. Dutch registrations are down 15% year-on-year with one month in. The India collapse is of a different magnitude.

Data summary

• Borrow availability: 2.67% (down from 37.1% on October 23)
• Short interest: ~1.30 million shares, up 18.9% week-on-week, up 31% month-on-month
• Cost to borrow: 1.1%, up 42% week-on-week
• India registrations (Vahan, October): 5,190 vehicles, record low since 2017, down 85% year-on-year
• Next earnings: November 5, 2026
• Put/call ratio: 0.83, slightly below 20-day average of 0.86