Mobileye bears dig in after earnings miss and analyst exodus

MBLY makes driver-assistance chips and autonomous-driving systems. It just delivered a quarterly miss that sent analysts running for the exits. Short interest now stands at 23.5% of the free float, up 13.6% in a single week, the highest level in at least a year and a move roughly 2.4 standard deviations above the company's typical weekly swing.

A queue of target cuts

The earnings report, released October 29, triggered a cascade of analyst downgrades and price-target reductions that has continued into November. TD Cowen moved to Hold from Buy, cutting its target to $7 from $8. Goldman Sachs, UBS and BNP Paribas each maintained Neutral ratings but trimmed targets; BNP is now at $6.50, the lowest of the group aside from RBC Capital's Underperform at $5. JP Morgan cut from $9 to $7.50 on November 2. Needham held its Buy but slashed from $13 to $9. The consensus target has settled at $9.76, well above the current price of $5.96, yet that gap reflects stale targets more than optimism: targets are still being cut.

The bear case centres on structural displacement. Carmakers are moving toward centralised compute architectures, which could shrink Mobileye's addressable content in its base ADAS business. Two years after the company's December 2024 investor day only two of the expected OEM wins have materialised, and Volkswagen Group, its biggest customer for higher-value SuperVision systems, is pursuing in-house autonomy work alongside Wayve.

Short positioning firms up

Short interest climbed from roughly 44.4 million shares to 50.8 million in the week ending October 30, with the sharpest step visible overnight between October 23 and October 26, ahead of the print. The move continues a trend running back through September: short interest was around 40 million shares in early October and 37 million in late September.

Availability in the lending market stands at 400%, meaning roughly four shares are available to borrow for every one already borrowed. That is down from above 600% in early October but still loose by any standard. Cost to borrow has risen 37% over the past week to 0.64%, its highest 30-day reading, but remains low in absolute terms. This is a conviction-driven positioning trade, not a borrow-squeeze.

The ORTEX short score sits at 68.8 and has held in the upper 60s all week. The short score's rank in the factor model is at the 7th percentile, placing Mobileye among the most heavily short-scored names in the database.

Options turn sharply bearish

The put/call ratio fell to 0.48 on October 30, a reading that sits 3.3 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.52. The ratio is near its three-year low of 0.33. Falling PCR alongside rising short interest points to a coordinated shift in positioning rather than isolated moves in one instrument: options traders are reducing put coverage at the same time the short book is growing.

Data summary

• Short interest: 23.5% of free float, up 13.6% in one week, highest in at least a year
• Shares short: approximately 50.8 million, up from 44.4 million a week ago
• Availability: 400%, down from above 600% in early October
• Cost to borrow: 0.64%, up 37% on the week, low in absolute terms
• Put/call ratio: 0.48, 3.3 standard deviations below the 20-day mean
• ORTEX short score: 68.8
• Price: $5.96, down 8.9% over the past week; consensus target $9.76
• Next earnings: January 21, 2027