Huntsman Short Sellers Step Back as Peers Chase OLN Higher

HUN is the least crowded name among its closest chemical peers heading into today's Q3 print. Short interest in Huntsman has fallen to 6.4% of the free float, down from roughly 9% in late September and at the lowest level seen in at least a year.

The comparison with peers sharpens the picture. OLN, Huntsman's highest-correlated peer at 84%, rose 13.9% over the past week and 3.1% on Monday alone. HUN matched that move, up 11.9% on the week against a peer median of 1.2%. The two stocks are moving in lockstep, and the reason is not hard to find: ORTEX forecasts an 84% probability that Huntsman will be deleted from the Russell 2000 following a takeover by Olin, with an estimated $204 million of forced selling across index trackers at an estimated trade date of June 29, 2027 (dates are ORTEX estimates, not confirmed by the index provider). OLN's weekly surge suggests the market is already pricing the deal's progress.

Options positioning adds another layer to the setup. Call demand has overtaken puts by a wide margin, with the put/call ratio at 0.41, the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks and nearly three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.44. That is not typical pre-earnings defensiveness. Combined with availability in the lending market still running extremely loose at over 4,000% of short interest, there is no sign of a squeeze dynamic, short sellers are retreating rather than being forced out.

The ownership picture carries one notable detail. Peter Huntsman, the Chairman, President and CEO, filed a Schedule 13D in February 2026, an activist-style filing, holding 5.09% of the class. He followed that with an open-market purchase of 100,000 shares at $9.81 in early August, a $981,000 commitment made without a pre-arranged trading plan. That buy came roughly three months before today's report, and the stock has since recovered to $9.95. BlackRock moved in the opposite direction on the 13D register, lifting its disclosed stake from 4.3% to 7.4% between April and July 2026. As always, 13D and 13G positions are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold, and holders dropping below that level may not file again.

The bear case on HUN rests on persistent oversupply in global polyurethanes and MDI markets, with EBITDA estimates revised down sharply across Q3 and the full year. Analysts have been uniformly cautious. RBC, Wells Fargo, UBS and Citi all trimmed targets in early October, clustering in the $9 range. Jefferies, the lone Buy, cut its target from $16 to $11. Barclays initiated at Equal-Weight with a $10 target. The mean consensus sits at $10.29, fractionally above the current price. Bulls point to the differentiated nature of roughly 75% of Huntsman's MDI book and the potential for margin recovery if construction and automotive demand turns. EPS momentum over the past 90 days ranks at the 100th percentile of the ORTEX universe, driven by sharp forward estimate revisions, though that reflects a low base after deep cuts rather than a growth story.

Today's report is therefore a test of whether Huntsman's volume and pricing trends in Polyurethanes have stabilised enough to anchor the earnings floor that the recent share price recovery implies.