Fox Options Turn Bullish as Short Interest Holds Near One-Year High

Fox Corporation reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on November 4, carrying an unusually large short position and a sharp shift in options sentiment into the print.

Short interest has stabilised near 24.1% of the free float after the roughly 10% build-up over October that brought the position to its highest level in at least a year. That monthly increase has not continued in recent days, with short shares edging down about 1.5% over the past week to around 50.1 million. Borrow conditions remain loose. Availability is running at 186%, meaning roughly two shares are available to lend for every one already borrowed, and the cost to borrow has barely moved, sitting at 0.58% annualised. At this level of availability, there is ample capacity for new short positions to be added, which makes the recent plateau in short interest notable in its own right.

What makes the setup more charged is the divergence between that elevated short position and what options markets are now pricing. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.51, more than three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.59. That is the most call-heavy reading the stock has seen in some time, a sharp contrast with the caution implied by 24% of the float sitting short. The stock closed at $62.76 on Monday, down about 4% on the week, which itself diverged from peer behaviour: SBGI and NXST both gained more than 2% over the same period, while sibling company NWSA fell a comparable 5%.

The analyst community has turned notably more constructive since the last earnings print. BofA Securities upgraded FOXA to Buy on October 16, raising its target from $54 to $85, a 57% lift on the target alone. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo both upgraded to Overweight in August, with targets of $82 and $80 respectively. The consensus mean target now sits at $79.80, implying roughly 27% upside from the current price. The bull case centres on Fox News holding the number-one cable-news rating, record World Cup Finals viewership, NFL advertising momentum, and management's guidance for $1.36bn in total company EBITDA and $3.1bn in free cash flow for fiscal 2027. Bears point to the structural decline in the pay-TV bundle, rising NFL rights costs expected to climb around 50% at the next reset, and the Roku deal adding regulatory uncertainty alongside an advertising base that remains exposed to any broader economic slowdown. The ORTEX short score of 74.7 places Fox in the third percentile of its universe on short positioning, underscoring how pronounced the bearish commitment is, even as the analyst community has moved firmly the other way.

Lachlan Murdoch holds 20.6% of shares, providing a stable controlling block, while BlackRock and State Street each added to positions last quarter. FMR added over four million shares through September. That institutional accumulation alongside the analyst upgrades sets up a direct test of which view, the new short position or the refreshed Wall Street consensus, better reflects where Fox's advertising and affiliate revenue growth is actually landing.