TPG Shorts Stay Elevated as Analysts Raise Targets Before Tuesday's Print

TPG, the San Francisco-based alternative asset manager, reports its next quarterly results on November 4 with short interest at its highest level in at least a year and a wall of analyst target increases arriving in the same week.

Short interest has pulled back fractionally from last week's peak, down 1.3% on October 30 to around 15 million shares, but it remains at 10.3% of the free float. That is up 27% over the past month and represents one of the more elevated short positions in the alternative asset management sector. Notably, that build came after the previous earnings print, when the stock rose nearly 5% on the day. The borrow market continues to offer no resistance: availability is at 623% of short interest, down sharply from above 1,100% three weeks ago but still meaning lenders hold roughly six shares available for every one borrowed. Cost to borrow is just 0.55%. The short position is large; the borrow conditions are not expensive enough to force any cover.

The options market tells a more constructive story. The put/call ratio has dropped to 2.05, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 2.37, making this the least defensive options positioning of the past year. Calls have gained relative to puts even as the stock has climbed 7.5% on the week to $48.18, matching the median weekly gain across its closest peers. CG rose 6%, KKR nearly 7%, ARES 9%, and OWL led the group at almost 14%.

Analysts have turned more constructive in a cluster. Multiple firms raised targets in the two days before the report. RBC Capital lifted its target to $68, among the more aggressive on the Street. Barclays moved to $62. TD Cowen and Wells Fargo also raised targets, the latter moving from $47 to $52, a notable step given its Equal-Weight rating. The consensus target stands at $59.24, implying roughly 23% upside from current levels. BMO Capital was the exception, trimming its target to $52 from $56 while keeping an Outperform rating, a signal of measured caution rather than retreat.

The ownership register carries one detail worth noting. Executive Chairman James Coulter holds a 13D filing on the company, the most active form of major-holder disclosure, with a stake last reported at 56.4% of the class, down from 58.3% at the prior filing in August. A 13D signals that the holder retains the right to engage actively on corporate matters. Wellington Management separately raised its stake to 11.2% of shares in its most recent filing, the largest among institutional holders. As with all Schedule 13D/G disclosures, these stakes are as-last-reported around the 5% threshold, and positions can fall below that level without a further filing.

The print will test whether TPG's fee-related earnings and fund deployment pace can justify both the rally and the persistence of a short position that has continued to grow even after positive results.