Lucid Shorts at 31% of Float, Borrow Tightening Before Thursday Print

Lucid Group reports Q3 results on Thursday with short sellers holding their largest position in at least a year and the borrow market near its tightest.

Short interest has climbed to 31.5% of the free float, up 12% over the past month, with FINRA's fortnightly settlement data putting the share count at 99.7 million and days-to-cover at 9.7. That is a structurally crowded position. Availability has tightened to just 1.6%, meaning fewer than two shares remain available for every hundred already borrowed. Cost to borrow has doubled over the past month to 15.4%, though it has eased from a peak near 23.8% in late October. The stock itself closed at $3.00, down 11.8% on the week, while closest peers RIVN and XPEV gained 15.4% and 4.9% respectively over the same period. That divergence is stark.

The options market is moving in the opposite direction from the short position. The put/call ratio fell to 1.56 on Monday, more than three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.79. That is the lowest reading in the past year, suggesting options traders are rotating away from downside hedges even as short sellers dig in. The two signals pulling against each other make the setup unusually charged ahead of the print.

The bear case is not subtle. Last quarter produced an adjusted EBITDA loss of $773 million and free cash flow consumption of $1.4 billion. Management suspended 2026 guidance after a delivery shortfall tied to a supplier problem. Morgan Stanley, maintaining its Underweight rating, cut its price target to $3.00 on October 15, matching the current share price exactly. RBC Capital trimmed its target to $4.00 the same week. The analyst consensus sits at a mean target of $7.39, but with Morgan Stanley's target at the stock's current price and a sustained pattern of downward revisions, the bull end of that range looks distant. Citigroup retains a Buy rating with an $11.00 target, pointing to order momentum, a liquidity runway into late 2027, and the Gravity launch as the case for recovery.

The ownership register adds a layer of complexity. Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund filed a Schedule 13D, making it an activist holder on the SEC register with a 56.9% stake as last disclosed in April. Uber Technologies also holds 11.5% per its April Schedule 13G filing. These anchor positions reduce the tradeable float materially, which partly explains why a short position of 31% of the free float can co-exist with availability this tight. The disclosure caveat applies: 13D/G stakes are as-last-disclosed and holders can drop below 5% without a further filing.

The past two earnings prints produced one-day declines of roughly 10% and 13%. Thursday's release will test whether the Gravity ramp and any revision to production guidance can shift a market that has so far treated each update as confirmation of the bear case rather than evidence of recovery.