Geopolitics, Autos and Index Pressure Shape the Monday Open

Macro: Trilateral Talks Move Markets

The biggest story this morning is a report from the Financial Times that the US, Russia and China are discussing a trilateral meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi. The news hits equities and bonds broadly. China halted new stock listings today to support its struggling markets, adding a second pressure point for investors tracking EM exposure. Both stories are fresh this morning and set a cautious tone heading into the week.

Earnings: Autos Under the Microscope

The auto sector owns this week's calendar. Ferrari kicks off today. ORTEX alt data tracking Austrian car registrations, which leads Ferrari revenue by 22 days, is running 75% below the same quarter last year. Options positioning clusters around November 6, 13 and 20. Honda and Polestar follow on Thursday. Japanese car sales, which has a strong historical fit as a revenue lead for Honda, are down 10% year-on-year. Polestar faces a split read: Dutch registrations point 68% lower, German registrations 32% higher.

Renault also reports this week. Austrian registrations point 6% above last year, while Dutch figures are down 21%. The alt data picture for the sector is mixed but mostly cautious.

Europe: Bayer Holds Guidance, Coloplast Lifts Outlook

Bayer affirmed its full-year 2026 sales guidance at €52.1B to €54.5B. That lands roughly in line with the €52.5B consensus. Coloplast guided 2027 revenue growth of 7% to 9%, a positive signal for the Danish medical device maker.

Index Watch: MSCI Cuts Loom

Six sessions remain before the MSCI November announcement on 11 November. Flutter Entertainment and Textron face 70% and 69% deletion probabilities respectively. CrowdStrike made separate news this morning, announcing it will acquire Fiddler AI to expand AI observability capabilities on its Falcon platform. The Kenvue-Kimberly-Clark deal is expected to settle today, which would trigger a $491M forced sell in Kenvue and $592M of buying in Kimberly-Clark.