Auto Earnings, MSCI Cuts and a Chip Sector Divide

Earnings in Focus

Ferrari kicks off a heavy auto earnings week today. Austrian car registrations, a leading indicator for Ferrari's revenue, are tracking 75% below the same quarter last year. Options traders are active around the print, with expiries clustered in November. GRAB also reports today on Nasdaq. The company's $11.7 billion market cap makes it the most closely watched result of the Monday session.

ADTRAN delivered mixed numbers, guiding Q4 sales to $272 million to $292 million against a consensus of $293 million. The guidance miss is weighing on the stock this morning.

Chips Split

Analysts cut Marvell Technology from Buy to Hold today, pulling the consensus target to $327.36. Short interest in the broader semiconductor space is moving in different directions. Cerebras Systems saw its short interest climb from 15.2% to 19.8% of free float in one week. QUALCOMM is moving the other way, with its consensus target edging up to $197.21.

MSCI Rebalance Watch

Six sessions remain before the MSCI November announcement on 11 November. Flutter Entertainment and Textron face 70% and 69% deletion probability respectively. Flutter sits 11.5% below its exit line at a market cap of $14.3 billion. Forced selling on Flutter would reach $786 million if the deletion is confirmed. Moderna looks set to re-enter, with an 88% addition probability and potential forced buying of $5.9 billion. Xero sits just 2.3% above its own exit line, with daily volatility of 2.7% making the outcome a genuine coin flip.

Deal Flow

The Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue cash-and-stock deal is expected to settle today. That would trigger $491 million of forced MSCI World selling in Kenvue and $592 million of forced buying in KMB through the CRSP US Mid index. The European Commission conditionally approved JD.com's acquisition of Ceconomy this morning.