BMO upgrades Marsh & McLennan as shorts build quietly

Marsh & McLennan rose 5.5% last week, outpacing the median 2.9% gain for its closest insurance brokerage peers. BMO Capital's upgrade to Outperform, with a new $230 target, lands as short interest climbs to its highest level in two months.

The analyst call

Michael Zaremski at BMO raised his rating from Market Perform to Outperform on 3 November, lifting his target from $204 to $230. At the current price of $205.38, that implies roughly 12% upside to the new target.

The move extends a run of upward target revisions from major firms. JP Morgan's Pablo Singzon raised his target to $218 from $215 on 20 October, keeping an Overweight rating. Before that, Keefe Bruyette, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all lifted their numbers in mid-October after Marsh & McLennan's most recent earnings beat, which moved the stock 5.6% on the day and 11.7% over the following five sessions.

BMO's upgrade is the first actual rating change in that run. Most firms that raised targets in October held their existing ratings.

Short interest at a two-month high

While analysts grow more constructive, short positions have been building. Short interest as a percentage of free float hit 1.45% on 2 November, up 10% over the past week and the highest reading in two months. At $95 billion in market cap, Marsh & McLennan is a large, liquid stock, so the absolute short level remains low. But the direction is notable: short interest has risen roughly 25% over the past month.

The borrow market remains exceptionally loose. Availability stands at 6,742%, meaning the pool of lendable shares is many times larger than current short demand. That rules out any near-term squeeze dynamic, and cost to borrow, at 0.45%, is inexpensive despite rising 17% over the past week.

A record buyback quarter in the background

One data point cuts against the short-side thesis. SEC EDGAR filings show Marsh & McLennan's buyback spend in Q2 2026 came in at $757 million, up 152% on the same quarter a year earlier and the largest Q2 buyback on record since at least 2009. That level of capital return is a management signal worth noting alongside the analyst activity.

T. Rowe Price added 2.46 million shares in the most recent reporting period, one of the larger institutional additions in the top holder list. Harris Associates and Ninety One each added material positions as well.

Key figures

• Price: $205.38, up 20.8% over the past month
• BMO target: $230, implying 12% upside
• Short interest: 1.45% of free float, up 10% over one week, two-month high
• Cost to borrow: 0.45%, up 17% week-on-week
• Availability: 6,742% (very loose borrow market)
• Buyback spend Q2 2026: $757 million, record for the company
• Next earnings: 28 January 2027